| 基于“配料”的暴雨预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 张小玲,陶诗言,孙建华.基于“配料”的暴雨预报[J].大气科学,2010,34(4):754-766. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张小玲 陶诗言 孙建华 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心,北京,100081;中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然基金资助项目40505010，公益性行业（气象）科研专项GYHY200906003 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文介绍一种使用显著“配料”进行暴雨预报的方法。2007年和2003年的暴雨个例分析表明, 我国主要的几类暴雨发生过程中具有一些共同的动力、热力特征, 表征深厚湿对流发生发展的物理“配料”具有明显的演变特征。综合环境场动力、热力条件配置和物理“配料”分析了暴雨的“配料法”主观预报思路。并利用数值模式输出产品追踪有利于暴雨发生的“配料”演变发展了“配料法”暴雨客观预报方法, 应用于国家级降水预报业务中。
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| 关 键 词： | 配料 暴雨 预报 |
Ingredients-Based Heavy Rainfall Forecasting |
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| ZHANG Xiaoling,TAO Shiyan and SUN Jianhua.Ingredients-Based Heavy Rainfall Forecasting[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2010,34(4):754-766. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Xiaoling TAO Shiyan and SUN Jianhua |
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| Institution: | 1.National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 1000812.Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029 |
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| Abstract: | An approach to forecast heavy precipitation is developed, using the concept of basic ingredients. Analyses of the heavy rainfall cases in 2007 and 2003 show that rainstorms share some common dynamic and thermodynamic environmental conditions, and their physical ingredients obviously vary with developing of deep moist convective systems in several heavy rainfall types in China. How to synthetically analyze the dynamic and thermodynamic environmental conditions and basic physical parameters in forecasting heavy rainfall is introduced. A technique for objective forecasting heavy rainfall which is applied in the National Meteorological Center is developed, using the monitor of basic ingredients variety by the numerical weather prediction output. |
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| Keywords: | ingredients heavy rainfall forecasting |
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