| 我国今冬和明春气候异常与沙尘气候形势的模式预测初步报告 |
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| 引用本文： | 王会军,郎咸梅,周广庆,康杜娟.我国今冬和明春气候异常与沙尘气候形势的模式预测初步报告[J].大气科学,2003,27(1):136-144. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王会军 郎咸梅 周广庆 康杜娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家杰出青年基金项目 40125014、中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目KZCX2-203和国家重点基础研究发展规划项目G1998040905共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 首次利用气候模式作了跨年度的针对冬季和春季气候异常形势的预测试验.预测结果显示,今冬的气候特点为,我国北方降水正常,南方略偏多,气温在我国全境基本为正常,因此,不会出现暖冬现象,而欧亚大陆北部则为明显的暖冬.预测结果还表明,明春我国西北、华北、东北降水正常,其他地区略多,全国气温均较正常,因此,明春的沙尘暴形势如常,不会出现超出常年的春季沙尘暴形势.但由于近些年的气候变化趋势使然,明春的沙尘暴仍可能在局部时空段内相当严重.
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| 关 键 词： | 气候异常 沙尘气候 模式预测 |
A Preliminary Report of the Model Prediction on the Forthcoming Winter and Spring Dust Climate over China |
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| Wang Huijun,Lang Xianmei,Zhou Guangqing and Kang Dujuan.A Preliminary Report of the Model Prediction on the Forthcoming Winter and Spring Dust Climate over China[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2003,27(1):136-144. |
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| Authors: | Wang Huijun Lang Xianmei Zhou Guangqing and Kang Dujuan |
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| Abstract: | This paper reports the first GCM-based prediction experiment results on the winter climate and spring dust climate several months ahead of the time. The ensemble prediction shows that the forthcoming winter will have normal precipitation in the North and slightly more precipitation in the South, and normal temperature in the countrywide. Therefore, it will not be the warm winter in China. In comparison, the North Eurasia will have a warm winter. Precipitation will be normal in Northwest, Central North, and Northeast in the next spring, and other parts will have a little more precipitation. The temperature will be normal in most areas. In accordance, North China will face normal, instead of stronger, dust storm occurrence. However, due to the recent enhancement tendency, strong dust storm occurrence will be still possible. |
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| Keywords: | climate anomaly dust storm climate model prediction |
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