| 贵州冻雨形成的环境场条件及其预报方法 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 高守亭,张昕,王瑾,杜小玲,邓涤菲.贵州冻雨形成的环境场条件及其预报方法[J].大气科学,2014,38(4):645-655. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 高守亭 张昕 王瑾 杜小玲 邓涤菲 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京 100029;中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京 100081 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目40930950、41275065,公益性行业科研专项GYHY201306051,中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题2011LASW-A01 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 在冬季风暴各种降水类型中,冻雨的预报是其中最有难度,也最具挑战的一种。贵州湖南冻雨是在对流层高、中、低层各纬度天气系统相互作用下形成的,其中最直接和主要的影响系统有:高层的副热带高空急流锋区、低层的云贵准静止锋以及中低层的西南低空急流。在这种复杂的天气背景下,为了准确地分析并预报出冻雨的发生区域,在仔细分析研究冻雨发生的大气背景和天气特点后,我们探索性地提出一套冻雨的诊断预测方法,即“动力因子”和“三步判别法”相结合的方法。同时,我们把该方法应用到中国冻雨最为频发的贵州地区,首先利用动力因子垂直积分的斜压涡度参数（qBsum）找到未来因斜压性较强而易发生弱降水的区域,再结合预报场的单站探空资料,进行三步判断方法,就能比较全面地判断冻雨发生的区域,对冻雨进行准确预报。
|
| 关 键 词： | 冻雨 环境场 动力因子 三步判别 诊断预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013/8/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/3/28 0:00:00 |
The Environmental Field and Ensemble Forecast Method for the Formation of Freezing Rain over Guizhou Province |
| |
| GAO Shouting,ZHANG Xin,WANG Jin,DU Xiaoling and DENG Difei.The Environmental Field and Ensemble Forecast Method for the Formation of Freezing Rain over Guizhou Province[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(4):645-655. |
| |
| Authors: | GAO Shouting ZHANG Xin WANG Jin DU Xiaoling and DENG Difei |
| |
| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms (LACS), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081;Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms (LACS), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province, Guiyang 550002;Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province, Guiyang 550002;Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms (LACS), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 |
| |
| Abstract: | During the winter storm, freezing rain is one of the most difficult to forecast among the various types of precipitation. The freezing rain over Guizhou and Hunan provinces is formed because of the interaction between the mid-higher latitude and the lower-latitude weather systems. The most important weather systems are the high-level subtropical jet stream front, the lower-level Yunnan-Guizhou quasi-stationary front, and the southwesterly jet. To accurately analyze the occurrence of freezing rain under these complex weather systems, we have proposed a new set of diagnostic method, which is a combination of the "dynamical factor" and the "three-step judge method." Meanwhile, we have applied the method to forecast freezing rain in Guizhou Province, China, where freezing rain occurs most frequently. We first used the dynamical factor vertical integral baroclinic vorticity parameter (qBsum) to find the possible weak rainfall region owing to atmospheric baroclinity, and then used single-station radiosonde data to employ the following three-step judge method. Finally, we determined the regions where freezing rain may occur in the future. |
| |
| Keywords: | Freezing rain Environmental field Dynamical factor Three-step judge Diagnoses and forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《大气科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《大气科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
