| 试论短期气候预测的不确定性 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王会军.试论短期气候预测的不确定性[J].气候与环境研究,1997,2(4):333-338. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王会军 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室 |
| |
| 基金项目： | “九五”国家重中之重项目,攀登项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 基于系统的模式预测试验和理论分析，研究了气候之短期变化预测中的不确定性问题，着重探讨大气系统内部的不确定性因素。首先，给出模式预测效能（可预测性）的概念模式；然后，详细研究预测结果的不确定性及其动力学机制；最后，对短期气候预测的出路提出了一点想法。
|
| 关 键 词： | 气候 预测 不确定性 |
A Preliminary Study on the Uncertainty of Short-Term Climate Prediction |
| |
| Wang Huijun.A Preliminary Study on the Uncertainty of Short-Term Climate Prediction[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,1997,2(4):333-338. |
| |
| Authors: | Wang Huijun |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on a set of systematic hindcast experiments by IAP and OSU AGCMs and theoratical analysis the uncertainty of short-term climate prediction were studied preliminarily. The paper stressed on the uncertainties induced by atmospheric internal dynamics. The conceptual model of short-term climate predictability were concluded and the preliminary dynamical mechanisms were analysed. Future suggestions of research were proposed in the last. |
| |
| Keywords: | climate prediction uncertainty |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气候与环境研究》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气候与环境研究》下载免费的PDF全文 |
