| 北京夏季日最大电力负荷预报模型建立方法探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 叶殿秀,张培群,赵珊珊,夏鑫,柯宗建,王有民,刘秋锋.北京夏季日最大电力负荷预报模型建立方法探讨[J].气候与环境研究,2013,18(6):804-810. |
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| 作者姓名： | 叶殿秀 张培群 赵珊珊 夏鑫 柯宗建 王有民 刘秋锋 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气候中心, 北京100081;国家气候中心, 北京100081;国家气候中心, 北京100081;国家发展改革委经济运行局, 北京100824;国家气候中心, 北京100081;国家气候中心, 北京100081;国家气候中心, 北京100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家发展改革委员会经济运行调节局电力需求侧管理专项;全球变化研究国家重大科学计划项目2012CB955903 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了探索夏季(6～8月)日气象负荷的最佳分离方式和引起日最大电力负荷波动的主要因子,以及建立预报模型最佳个数,基于北京市2005～2010年逐日最大电力负荷和同期的气象资料,分析了北京地区日最大电力负荷的变化规律,采用不同方法将气象负荷从夏季日最大电力负荷中分离出来,分析北京夏季气象负荷与气温、相对湿度、降水及炎热指数、高温持续日数、炎热日数持续时间、前一日气象负荷等因子之间的关系,并基于2005～2009年夏季逐日气象负荷和其主要影响因子采用逐步回归方法建立日最大电力负荷的预报模型,将2010年夏季北京日最大电力负荷作为预报效果的独立样本检验。结果显示:2005～2010年,北京逐日最大电力负荷具有明显的线性增长趋势,夏季日最大电力负荷具有显著的星期效应;与去掉逐年夏季日最大电力负荷趋势和夏季平均日最大电力负荷趋势相比,去掉全年逐日最大电力负荷变化趋势的夏季日气象负荷预报模型的拟合能力更优;北京夏季日气象负荷与当日气温的相关系数最高,与前一日气象负荷也关系密切;利用前一日相对气象负荷和当日气象要素一周逐日分别建立预报模型的拟合和预测效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 北京 日最大电力负荷 气象因子 趋势分离方式 预报模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012/8/16 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2013/2/25 0:00:00 |
Research on Meteorological Forecast Technique of Daily Maximum Electric Loads during Summer in Beijing |
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| YE Dianxiu,ZHANG Peiqun,ZHAO Shanshan,XIA Xin,KE Zongjian,WANG Youmin and LIU Qiufeng.Research on Meteorological Forecast Technique of Daily Maximum Electric Loads during Summer in Beijing[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2013,18(6):804-810. |
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| Authors: | YE Dianxiu ZHANG Peiqun ZHAO Shanshan XIA Xin KE Zongjian WANG Youmin and LIU Qiufeng |
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| Institution: | National Climate Center, Beijing 100081;National Climate Center, Beijing 100081;National Climate Center, Beijing 100081;Economic Operation Bureau of National Development and Reform Commission, Beiijng 100824;National Climate Center, Beijing 100081;National Climate Center, Beijing 100081;National Climate Center, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The best method to distinguish the components of the variations in daily electrical loads and the main factors that cause daily maxima, and the optimum number of forecast models was explored. Based on daily electric load, temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind speed data from 2005 to 2010 in Beijing, the characteristics of the daily electric load maxima were analyzed and the methods to distinguish the variation components were discussed. Based on the correlation between electric load and meteorological parameters, the maximum electric load of the long summer days was also analyzed. The method of stepwise regression was used to model the variations in daily electric load maxima from June to August during 2005-2009. The results showed that the daily electric load increased linearly from 2005 to 2010 with a significant weekly effect during summer. Separation methods based on annual daily variation trends are the best. For the same day, the correlation coefficient between electric load and average air temperature is high, which also applies to the variations of the daily electric load for the day before. Seven forecast models that take into account the daily air temperature and electric load for the same day and the day before are better than two or four models that consider the whole week. |
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| Keywords: | Maximum electric loads Meteorological elements Tendency separation methods Forecast model Beijing |
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