|
|||||
|
|
| 基于SVD和修正Z指数的汛期旱涝预测及其应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 周后福,方茸,张建军,钱玉萍.基于SVD和修正Z指数的汛期旱涝预测及其应用[J].气候与环境研究,2010,15(1):64-72. |
| 作者姓名： | 周后福 方茸 张建军 钱玉萍 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 安徽省气象科学研究所,合肥,230031;安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室,合肥,230031 2. 合肥市气象局,合肥,230031 3. 安徽省气象科学研究所,合肥,230031 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目40675001、安徽省科技攻关计划07010202058和合肥市重点科研项目“基于SVD的合肥地区汛期旱涝气候预测研究应用” |
| 摘 要： | 利用奇异值分解(SVD)方法、500hPa高度场、太平洋海温场和降水资料,建立起汛期降水的预测方程;经过适应本地化的Z指数修正,将预测结果转化为旱涝等级;将SVD技术与修正的Z指数结合起来,实现旱涝的气候预测;将研究成果推广应用到气象、防汛抗旱部门。结果表明:1)影响江淮分水岭地区汛期降水的因子有5个,分别是太平洋地区2个,印度半岛附近2个,欧洲地区1个;2)理论上的Z指数等级不符合江淮分水岭地区的实际状况,因而必须对Z指数进行修正。经过修正后的各个旱涝等级的划分概率较为合理,说明Z指数的5级指标是可靠的;3)利用5个影响因子可以建立汛期降水量与影响因子之间的预报方程,在共计8年的旱涝滚动预测和实况检验中,等级相符的有7年,只有2003年的预测试验相差一个等级,5级的预测准确率达到87.5%;4)经过气象、防汛抗旱部门2008年的应用,旱涝等级的预测意见和实际基本吻合,说明预测技术的应用情况良好。 |
| 关 键 词： | 江淮分水岭 旱涝预测 奇异值分解 修正Z指数 |
Prediction for Drought/Flood during the Flood Season Based on SVD Method and Modified Z-index and Its Application |
|
| ZHOU Houfu,FANG Rong,ZHANG Jianjun and QIAN Yuping.Prediction for Drought/Flood during the Flood Season Based on SVD Method and Modified Z-index and Its Application[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2010,15(1):64-72. | |
| Authors: | ZHOU Houfu FANG Rong ZHANG Jianjun and QIAN Yuping |
| Institution: | ZHOU+Houfu1,2,FANG+Rong3,ZHANG+Jianjun1,,+QIAN+Yuping11+Anhui+Research+Institute+of+Meteorological+Science,Hefei+2300312+Key+Laboratory+of+Atmospheric+Sciences+,+Satellite+Remote+Sensing,Anhui+Province,Hefei+2300313+Hefei+Meteorological+Office,Hefei+230031 |
| Abstract: | A forecast equation for drought/flood during the flood season is established,by using the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and the data of 500-hPa height field,Sea Surface Temperature(SST) in the Pacific Ocean,and precipitation. Prediction results are transformed into drought/flood grade after the modified Z-index is used. SVD method combined with modified Z-index is used to predict the drought and flood trend. The results are used in the meteorological department,the flood prevention and drought resistin... |
| Keywords: | Changjiang-Huaihe watershed drought/flood prediction Singular Value Decomposition modified Z-index |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |
| 点击此处可从《气候与环境研究》浏览原始摘要信息 | |
| 点击此处可从《气候与环境研究》下载免费的PDF全文 | |