| 气候变化情景下中国乡村振兴核心区人口预估及在干旱灾害影响评估中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 林镔雷,王磊斌,林齐根,杨陈心怡,景丞,李瑷蔚,王雪晴,高淑媛,黄金龙,姜彤.气候变化情景下中国乡村振兴核心区人口预估及在干旱灾害影响评估中的应用[J].气候与环境研究,2022,27(1):134-146. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林镔雷 王磊斌 林齐根 杨陈心怡 景丞 李瑷蔚 王雪晴 高淑媛 黄金龙 姜彤 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南京信息工程大学地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院，南京 2100442.河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院，石家庄 050024 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目42071024、41571494，南京信息工程大学人才启动基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据IPCC提出的共享社会经济路径（SSPs），本文以中国14个乡村振兴核心区为研究区，结合中国当前人口特征设定不同SSPs路径下本地化人口预估参数，采用人口—发展—环境（PDE）模型，预估2020～2040年人口变化特征。结合SSPs-RCPs情景下多模式的干旱评估结果，探讨未来乡村振兴核心区干旱暴露人口较基准期（1995～2014年）的变化特征。结果表明:（1）SSP1、SSP4和SSP5路径下中国乡村振兴核心区未来人口呈下降趋势，SSP2路径下人口保持稳定，SSP3路径下人口持续增长，各路径下2040年达到2.30×109～2.66×109人，且占全国比重16.7%～18.1%。（2）年龄结构上，SSP1、SSP4和SSP5路径下2040年的老龄人口比重大，新生人数极少，可能存在老龄化问题；SSP2路径下年龄结构相对均衡；SSP3路径下，新生人口数量较高，劳动人口相对较多。（3）2020～2040年，除SSP3-7.0情景外，其他情景下年平均干旱灾害频次和年平均干旱灾害暴露人口较基准期均呈增加趋势。各SSPs-RCPs情景下干旱灾害暴露人口变化的空间格局较一致，超过60%的区域较基准期呈增加趋势，其中西南及中部地区增加幅度最高，大别山片区等局部区域暴露度略有降低。（4）不同年龄段受干旱灾害影响程度不一，SSP3-7.0情景下少儿人口暴露于干旱灾害较多，老年人口则在SSP5-8.5情景下受影响程度更大。
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| 关 键 词： | 共享社会经济路径（SSPs） 中国乡村振兴核心区 人口预估 人口年龄结构 干旱暴露度 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-06-30 |
Projection of Population in Rural Revitalization Areas of China under Climate Change Scenario and Its Application in Drought Disaster Impact Assessment |
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| LIN Binlei,WANG Leibin,LIN Qigen,YANG Chenxinyi,JING Cheng,LI Aiwei,WANG Xueqing,GAO Shuyuan,HUANG Jinlong,JIANG Tong.Projection of Population in Rural Revitalization Areas of China under Climate Change Scenario and Its Application in Drought Disaster Impact Assessment[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2022,27(1):134-146. |
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| Authors: | LIN Binlei WANG Leibin LIN Qigen YANG Chenxinyi JING Cheng LI Aiwei WANG Xueqing GAO Shuyuan HUANG Jinlong JIANG Tong |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Geographical Science / Institute for Disaster Risk Management, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 2100442.College of Resources and Environment Science, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024 |
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| Abstract: | In this study, 14 rural revitalization areas of China were selected as the study areas. The localized population parameters for the population development environment (PDE) model under different shared socio-economic paths (SSPs) were set by considering China’s population characteristics. Then, the population change characteristics of the 14 rural revitalization areas from 2020 to 2040 were estimated based on the PDE model. Combined with the multimodel drought assessment results under shared socioeconomic pathway–representative concentration pathway (SSP–RCP) scenarios, the change characteristics of drought exposed population in the future were compared with a baseline period (1995–2014). The results show that: (1) The population of China’s rural revitalization areas under SSP1, SSP4, and SSP5 scenarios show a downward trend; the population under the SSP2 remains stable and that under the SSP3 continues to grow; the population under each SSP scenario is projected to be 230–266 million in 2040, accounting for 16.7%–18.1% of China’s population. (2) In terms of the age structure, the proportion of the elderly population in 2040 under SSP1, SSP4, and SSP5 scenarios are relatively higher, and the number of freshmen is very small, which may result in an aging problem; the age structure is relatively balanced under the SSP2 scenario, the newborn population is high, and the working population is relatively large under the SSP3. (3) The annual average drought frequency and exposed population from 2020 to 2040 under all the SSP–RCP scenarios except for SSP3–7.0 are projected to increase compared with the baseline period; the spatial pattern of the change of population exposed to drought is relatively consistent under different SSP–RCP scenarios; more than 60% of the regions are projected to increase compared with the reference period, among which the increased range is the highest in the southwest and central regions. In contrast, the exposed population in Dabie Mountain Area is projected to decrease slightly. (4) Different age groups are affected by drought to varying degrees; children are more exposed to drought under the SSP3–7.0 scenario, while the elderly are more affected under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. |
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