| 1961～2004年漠河年均温与持续极端气温频数的变化分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王春红,张讲社,延晓冬,秦旭.1961～2004年漠河年均温与持续极端气温频数的变化分析[J].气候与环境研究,2009,14(5):546-552. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王春红 张讲社 延晓冬 秦旭 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西安交通大学理学院,西安,710049
2. 中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展汁划973项目2006CIM00500、2007CB311002 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用漠河站点1961～2004年逐日平均、最高和最低气温资料计算得到的年均温、年变化和季节变化的持续暖口和冷夜频数,分析了它们的线性趋势、增量、显著性和平稳性.其中年均温升高了约1.61℃,年持续暖口频数增加了约4次,冬季持续暖日频数和夏季持续冷夜频数都呈显著增加趋势.分别对年均温和年持续频数的线性回归关系,以及年均温和季持续频数的线性回归关系进行了显著性检验.在线性回归关系显著的情况下,分别就各频数序列埘年均温的影响逐一进行显著性检验,从而揭示了年均温与符频数序列的变化关系.研究结果表明:从按年,变化的角度米分析,年均温的升高是由年持续暖日频数的增加和年持续冷夜频数的减少共同显著影响的;从按季变化的角度来分析,年均温的升高主要由春、夏季持续暖日频数的增加和春、秋季持续冷夜频数的减少共同显著影响的.
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| 关 键 词： | 年均温 持续暖日频数 持续冷夜频数 |
Variations of Annual Mean Temperature and Durative Extreme Temperature Frequency at Mohe During 1961-2004 |
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| WANG Chunhong,ZHANG Jiangshe,YAN Xiaodong,QIN Xu.Variations of Annual Mean Temperature and Durative Extreme Temperature Frequency at Mohe During 1961-2004[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2009,14(5):546-552. |
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| Authors: | WANG Chunhong ZHANG Jiangshe YAN Xiaodong QIN Xu |
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| Abstract: | Annual mean temperature,frequency of annual durative warm days and cold nights,and frequency of seasonal durative warm days and cold nights were calculated based on the daily mean,maximum and minimum tern-perature at Mohe during 1961-2004.Linear trends,increments,significance tests and stationarity test were ana-lyzed.Annual mean temperature increased by 1.61℃and the frequency of annual durative warm days rose by four times.There were significant increasing trends in both frequency of winter durative warFfl days and summer durative cold nights.Significance tests were made on linear regression relationship between annual mean temperature and fre-quency of annual durative series,and frequency of seasonal durative series.As the linear regression relationship was statistically significant,significance tests were made on every frequency series to the annual mean temperature indi-vidually,to indicate the correlation among them.The results were as follows:From annual aspect.the increase in the annual mean temperature was significantly influenced by the increase of annual durative warrfl day frequency and the decrease of annual durative cold night frequency;from seasonal aspect,the increase in annual mean temperature was significantly influenced by the increase of spring and summer durative warm day frequency,together with the decrease of spring and autumn durative cold night frequency. |
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| Keywords: | annual mean temperature frequency of durative warm days frequency of durative cold nights |
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