| 武汉市居民中暑与气象因子的统计特点研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 何玲玲,陈正洪.武汉市居民中暑与气象因子的统计特点研究[J].气候与环境研究,2009,14(5):531-536. |
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| 作者姓名： | 何玲玲 陈正洪 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学,武汉430074武汉区域气候中心,武汉430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划课题2007BAC29B05-01、中国气象局气候研究开放实验室开放课题LCS-2006-11和气象新技术推广项目CMATG2006M15、武汉区域气象中心科技发展基金重点项目QY-Z-200807 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用武汉市1994～2006年共13年1464个中暑病例资料和同期逐日气象资料,分别统计逐日中暑人数、日平均中暑人数与气象因子的线性、非线性相关系数,筛选出关键气象因子,建立中暑与多气象因子的非线性模型,制订中暑气象等级标准.结果表明:气温是中暑发生的最关键影响因子,不利气象因子3天或3天以上的累积效应才能导致中暑群发,中暑人数与气象因子呈现非线性关系.建立了日平均中暑人数与前3日平均气温、前3 日平均最小相对湿度的指数模型.将日平均中暑人数划分为5级,并应用该等级标准进行历史样本同代检验和独立样本预报检验,效果较好.
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| 关 键 词： | 中暑 气象因子 相关分析 非线性模型 等级划分 |
Statistical Properties of the Heat Stroke Events in Wuhan Residents and Meteorological Factors |
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| HE Lingling,CHEN Zhenghong.Statistical Properties of the Heat Stroke Events in Wuhan Residents and Meteorological Factors[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2009,14(5):531-536. |
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| Authors: | HE Lingling CHEN Zhenghong |
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| Abstract: | By using the detailed data of 1464 daily heat stroke cases and daily meteorological factors from 1994 to 2006 in Wuhan , the linear and nonlinear correlation coefficients between the daily number of heat stroke cases and meteorological factors are calculated, the key factors are selected, the nonlinear models are established, and the meteorological grades for heat stroke are divided. The results show: 1) The air temperature is the key factor which leads to the heat stroke events, and the accumulation of meteorological factors in or over three days will be more effective for numerous heat stroke cases; 2) nonlinear correlation will be more suitable for the number of heat stroke cases and meteorological factors. The nonlinear models are established between the daily average number of heat stroke cases and the mean temperature, the minimum relative humidity in the preceding three days (including the present day). The standards of five grades are worked out according to the daily average number of heat stroke cases, the test indicates a good result through historical and independent samples. |
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| Keywords: | heat stroke meteorological factors correlation analysis nonlinear model grade division |
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