| 上海地区单季晚稻生长期降水量对产量的影响及产量预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 史艳姝,李军,谈建国,吴蔚,辛跳儿,周宇.上海地区单季晚稻生长期降水量对产量的影响及产量预估[J].气候与环境研究,2021,26(5):583-590. |
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| 作者姓名： | 史艳姝 李军 谈建国 吴蔚 辛跳儿 周宇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.上海市气候中心，上海 2000302.中国气象局上海城市气候变化应对重点开放实验室，上海 200030 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部公益性行业（气象）科研专项GYHY201306052，上海市气象局科技开发项目TD201804 |
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| 摘 要： | 为探索上海地区单季晚稻生长期内降水量分配对产量的影响。采用降水集中度（Precipitation Concentration Degree, PCD）和集中期（Precipitation Concentration Period, PCP）研究1971～2015年单季晚稻全生育期内降水非均匀分布特征，运用趋势分析法研究单季晚稻全生育期降水分配情况及各生育期降水量与产量之间的关系，基于CMIP5全球气候模式情景下降水预估资料，估算2020～2045年上海地区单季晚稻生长期降水量对气象产量影响变化。结果表明:近45年单季晚稻生长季PCD变化趋势不显著，降水分布不均匀， PCP主要集中在7月27日至9月11日，即孕穗期和抽穗期；在分蘖期的降水量占全生育期总量的29.9%，孕穗期占26.2%，抽穗期占7.1%，成熟期占10.8%，分蘖期和孕穗期降水占全生育期的1/2以上；孕穗期降水量与单季晚稻气象产量的负相关关系达显著水平（p＜0.05）；未来30年内降水量对单季晚稻气象产量的负效应略大于正效应，即减产作用大于增产作用。未来气候变化情景下单季晚稻生长期内降水量的变化对产量有影响，应制定相应的适应措施。
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| 关 键 词： | 上海 降水量 单季晚稻 产量 预估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-02-22 |
Effect of Growing Season Precipitation on Yield of Single Cropping Late Rice in Shanghai and Yield Estimation |
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| Yanshu SHI,Jun LI,Jianguo TAN,Wei WU,Tiaoer XIN,Yu ZHOU.Effect of Growing Season Precipitation on Yield of Single Cropping Late Rice in Shanghai and Yield Estimation[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2021,26(5):583-590. |
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| Authors: | Yanshu SHI Jun LI Jianguo TAN Wei WU Tiaoer XIN Yu ZHOU |
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| Institution: | 1.Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai 2000302.Key Laboratory of Cities Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030 |
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| Abstract: | In order to explore the effect of precipitation distribution on the yield of single cropping late rice in Shanghai, Precipitation Concentration Degree (PCD) and Precipitation Concentration Period (PCP) were used to study the nonuniform distribution characteristics of precipitation during the whole growth period of single cropping late rice from 1971 to 2015. The trend analysis method was used to study the precipitation distribution in the whole growth period of single cropping late rice and the relationship between the precipitation and yield in each growth period. Based on the CMIP5 Global Climate Model scenario’s precipitation forecast data, the precipitation on meteorological yield of single cropping late rice in Shanghai from 2020 to 2045 was estimated. The results showed that the changing trend of PCD in single cropping late rice-growing season was insignificant in the recent 45 years, and the distribution of precipitation was uneven. The PCP mainly concentrated from 27 July to 11 September, the booting and heading stages. The precipitation at tillering, booting, heading, and maturity stages were accounted for 29.9%, 26.2%, 7.1%, and 10.8% of the total growth period, and the precipitation at tillering and booting stages was accounted for more than half of the total growth period. There was a significant negative correlation between the precipitation at the booting stage and the meteorological yield of single-season late rice (p<0.05). In the next 30 years, the negative effect of precipitation on the meteorological yield of single cropping late rice will be slightly larger than the positive effect. That is to say, the effect of reducing production will be greater than that of increasing production. The precipitation variation during the single cropping late rice will impact the yield in the future climate change scenario, and the corresponding adaptive measures should be formulated. |
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