| CMIP5模式对冬季北极涛动的模拟和预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 张永瑞,李丽平,靳泽辉,刘璞,康喜.CMIP5模式对冬季北极涛动的模拟和预估[J].气候与环境研究,2017,22(5):633-641. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张永瑞 李丽平 靳泽辉 刘璞 康喜 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 南京 210044;山西省气象灾害防御技术中心, 太原 030002,南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 南京 210044,山西省五台山气象站, 山西五台县 035515,山西省预警信息发布中心, 太原 030002,山西省代县气象局, 山西代县 034200 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）项目2015CB453202，公益性（气象）行业专项GYHY201406024，国家自然科学基金重点项目41330425。 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和CMIP5的19个模式结果,从异常模态、年代际趋势和周期特征等方面评估了CMIP5耦合模式对冬季北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation,AO)的模拟能力,并对未来RCP4.5、RCP8.5两种浓度路径下AO的可能变化趋势给出了定性的预估。CMIP5模式历史试验结果显示,大多数模式都能够模拟出AO模态的基本结构,但是对中心位置、强度的模拟存在较大的偏差,其中MPI-ESM-LR和Had GEM2-AO能较好地模拟出AO整体模态来。在历史演变和周期特征的刻画方面,模式的冬季海平面气压经验正交函数分解第一模态时间序列(Principal Component,PC1)基本能够反映出1950~1970年以来的减弱趋势,但对1970年以后的增长趋势模拟并不明显,而北半球环状模指数(Zonal Index,ZI)序列对两个阶段的趋势均可模拟出来,模式的PC1和ZI序列总体表现为正的变化趋势。有一半以上的模式对2~3 a高频周期模拟较好,但对20 a左右的周期模拟较差,其中仅有Can ESM2、CNRM-CM5、GFDL-ESM2G这3个模式对ZI指数的两个周期变化模拟较好。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种浓度路径下,ZI序列有显著的上升趋势,从长期趋势系数看RCP4.5路径下有14个模式呈现正的变化趋势,其中有10个模式通过了检验。RCP8.5浓度路径下,16个模式为正变化趋势,有11个模式通过了检验,集合平均结果正变化趋势较为显著。两种浓度路径下不同时段的海平面气压变化趋势表明,ZI序列的年代际变化明显,存在3个不同的变化阶段——2006~2039年、2070~2100年为两个上升阶段,2040~2069年为缓慢下降阶段。
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| 关 键 词： | CMIP5模式 冬季 北极涛动 模拟和预估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/2/14 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/7/13 0:00:00 |
Simulation and Projection of the Arctic Oscillation in Winter Based on CMIP5 Models |
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| ZHAGN Yongrui,LI Liping,JIN Zehui,LIU Pu and KANG Xi.Simulation and Projection of the Arctic Oscillation in Winter Based on CMIP5 Models[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2017,22(5):633-641. |
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| Authors: | ZHAGN Yongrui LI Liping JIN Zehui LIU Pu and KANG Xi |
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| Institution: | College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;Shanxi Province Meteorological Disasters Prevention Technology Center, Taiyuan 030002,College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044,Wutai Shan Weather Station, Shanxi Province, Wutai Xian Shanxi 035515,Shanxi Province Early Warning Information Release Center, Taiyuan 030002 and Dai Xian Meteorological Office, Shanxi Province, Dai Xian Shanxi 034200 |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and CMIP5 19 model results, this work examined the performance of 19 CMIP5 models in the simulation of temporal variability and spatial pattern of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and estimated the future changes of AO under two typical Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results show that most of the models can capture the basic structure of the AO mode, while MPI-ESM-LR and HadGEM2-AO can better simulate the overall AO mode than other models. However, some models overestimate the anomalous distribution on the Pacific side. Regarding the time series and temporal variability, the first mode of principal component (PC1) of the CMIP5 models basically can reproduce the weakening trend since 1950-1970, but the growing trend after 1970 is not obvious in the simulations. Nevertheless, the zonal index (ZI) sequence can simulate the trend in the two stages. On the whole, most of the PC1 and ZI sequences during 1950-2005 show a positive trend. More than half of the CMIP5 models can well simulate the high frequency cycles with 2-3 a; however, the simulations of 20-aquasi-periodic oscillation are poor. Among all the models, only CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, and GFDL-ESM2G can better simulate the ZI cycle inversion. It is found that the ZI sequence shows a significant upward trend under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the interdecadal variation is obvious with three different stages, i.e., 2006-2039 and 2070-2001 correspond to two rising phases, while 2040-2069 is the slow descending phase. A majority of the simulation results reveals a positive trend, and more than 10 out of the 19 CMIP5 models have passed the test under both concentration scenarios. |
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| Keywords: | CMIP5 model Winter Arctic Oscillation Simulation and projection |
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