| 我国春季沙尘天气趋势的数值气候预测试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈红,林朝晖,周广庆.我国春季沙尘天气趋势的数值气候预测试验[J].气候与环境研究,2004,9(1):182-190. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈红 林朝晖 周广庆 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家财政部"西北地区土壤水分、沙尘暴监测预测研究"项目(Y0101)及中国科学院百人计划"沙尘输送及其气候环境影响的数值模拟研究" |
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| 摘 要： | 利用IAP动力学气候预测系统(IAP DCP)对1980～2000年共21年进行了集合后报试验,首先考察了IAP DCP对我国春季气候异常的预测能力,并在此基础上利用该系统进行了春季沙尘天气异常的动力学气候预测试验.结果表明:该系统对我国春季气候具有一定的跨年度预测能力,特别是对春季西北地区降水异常和近地面风场具有较好的预报技巧.实时预测及其检验表明,IAP DCP对我国2003年春季沙尘的预测结果与实况比较一致.对2004年春季气候异常及沙尘趋势的实时预测结果表明,2004年春季我国北方,特别是西北及内蒙沙源地区降水偏多,冷空气势力较常年弱,因此2004年春季我国北方地区沙尘趋势应为正常或略偏弱.
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| 关 键 词： | 气候异常 沙尘天气 数值预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-9895(2004)01-0182-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年1月8日 |
Experimental Dynamical Prediction of Spring Dust Storm Events in China |
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| Chen Hong,Lin Zhaohui and Zhou Guangqing.Experimental Dynamical Prediction of Spring Dust Storm Events in China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2004,9(1):182-190. |
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| Authors: | Chen Hong Lin Zhaohui and Zhou Guangqing |
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| Abstract: | Hindcast experiments from 1980 to 2000 has been conducted by using IAP DCP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Dynamical Climate Prediction System), and the ability of this system to predict climate anomaly in spring has been discussed. Real-time prediction for the dust storm in spring was also done by using this system. Results show that: IAP DCP is capable for predicting the climate characteristics in China in spring, especially for the precipitation anomaly in the northwestern China and surface wind anomaly. Verification of real-time prediction expressed that the prediction for the dust storm in 2003 is close to the observation. The predicted precipitation in the northern part of China in 2004 spring is above normal, and cold air is weaker than normal. So, it could be expected that in 2004, there will not be so many opportunities for the occurrence of strong dust storm. |
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| Keywords: | climate anomaly dust storm numerical prediction |
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