| 1999年中国夏季气候的预测和检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 林朝晖,赵彦,周广庆,曾庆存.1999年中国夏季气候的预测和检验[J].气候与环境研究,2000,5(2):97-108. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林朝晖 赵彦 周广庆 曾庆存 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室，北京 100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目49905004和49735160以及优秀国家重点实验室研究项目49823002 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用改进的中国科学院大气物理研究所短期气候预测系统（IAPPSSCA），结合IAPENSO预测系统所预测的1999年热带太平洋地区的海温异常，对1999年中国夏季气候进行了适时集合预测。预测结果表明：IAPPSSCA较好地预测出了1999年夏季北半球大尺度环流场的异常情况，并较好地预测出1999年中国南涝北旱的大范围降水形势。IAPPSSCA对长江下游的强降水中心、中国南方大部夏季多雨的特征以及中国北方大部的干旱少雨形势的预测，与实测较相符。但IAPPSSCA预测的南方大范围雨带的北界比实测的略为偏北，北方的小范围的降水正距平区域也没有能预报出来。另外，对于月平均降水距平的预测亦存在较大的不确定性。这说明我们的预测系统还有待于进一步的改进和完善。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候异常 短期气候预测 旱涝预测 |
Prediction of Summer Climate Anomaly over China for 1999 and Its Verification |
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| Lin Zhaohui,Zhao Yan,Zhou Guangqing and Zeng Qingcun.Prediction of Summer Climate Anomaly over China for 1999 and Its Verification[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2000,5(2):97-108. |
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| Authors: | Lin Zhaohui Zhao Yan Zhou Guangqing and Zeng Qingcun |
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| Abstract: | In combination with the predicted equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) by IAP ENSO prediction system, the summer climate anomalies for year 1999 have been predicted by the improved IAP Prediction System of Short-Term Climate Anomaly (IAP PSSCA). Generally, the predicted pattern of the general circulation anomaly (e.g., 500 hPa geopotential height) agrees well with the observation. As for the prediction result for 1999 summer monsoon rainfall anomaly, verification map shows that, for the JJA mean, the positive rainfall anomalies over the Yangtze River valley, South China have been well predicted by IAP PSSCA, and the drought over most part of North China have also been predicted, although the detailed rainfall anomaly distribution has some discrepancies compared with the observation, especially over North China. As for monthly mean pattern of the rainfall anomaly, the uncertainties of the prediction and its disagreement with the observation are both relatively large compared with that in seasonal time scale, and this is due to the limitation of current seasonal to extraseasonal climate prediction system. All above results indicate that, although IAP PSSCA does show some skill in the prediction of summer monsoon rainfall anomaly over China, further improvements in this system are still needed. |
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| Keywords: | climate anomaly short-term climate prediction flood/drought prediction |
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