| ECHAM4/OPYC3海气耦合模式对东亚季风年循环及其未来变化的模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 布和朝鲁,林永辉.ECHAM4/OPYC3海气耦合模式对东亚季风年循环及其未来变化的模拟[J].气候与环境研究,2003,8(4):402-416. |
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| 作者姓名： | 布和朝鲁 林永辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京,100029
2. 中国气象科学院灾害天气研究中心,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程项目ZKCX2-SW-210、国家重点基础研究发展规划项目G1998040904和国家自然科学基金资助项目40105006 |
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| 摘 要： | 德国马普研究所海气耦合摸式ECHAM4/OPYC3对东亚地区2 m温度年循环的模拟尽管有一些偏差,但还是相当成功的.其模拟的东亚夏季风偏弱,而冬季风偏强,此偏差可能与2 m温度以及西太平洋副热带高压模拟偏差有关.该模式模拟的东亚季风区夏季降水量偏弱,这与上述夏季风环流的模拟结果是一致的.该模式较好地抓住了华北地区经向环流和降水量的年循环特征.利用最新的温室气体和SO2排放方案,即政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放方案特别报告(SRES)的A2和B2方案,通过该模式111年的积分结果讨论了东亚季风气候在21世纪后30年中的变化,其主要结果为:全球变暖导致夏季海陆温差增大和冬季海陆温差减弱,进而使东亚季风环流在夏季加强,冬季减弱.长江流域和华北地区的夏季降水量显著增强,而后者的增强更为显著,使得东亚季风区的夏季多雨区向北延伸;东亚季风区9月份的降水量在两个方案中都显著增加,说明在全球变暖条件下东亚季风区的多雨季节将延迟一个月.
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| 关 键 词： | 东亚季风 气候变化 海气耦合模式 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年8月9日 |
A Simulation of the Annual Cycle and Future Change of the East Asian Monsoon with the ECHAM4/OPYC3 CGCM Model |
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| Bueh Cholaw and Lin Yonghui.A Simulation of the Annual Cycle and Future Change of the East Asian Monsoon with the ECHAM4/OPYC3 CGCM Model[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2003,8(4):402-416. |
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| Authors: | Bueh Cholaw and Lin Yonghui |
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| Abstract: | The annual cycle of 2 m temperature is considerably well simulated in the ECHAM4/OPYC3 CGCM Model, despite of a slight bias. In this model, the simulated East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation is weaker (stronger) than the observed one.This is likely to result from the simulated errors of the 2 m temperature and the western Pacific subtropical high. Consequently, the summer rainfall in the East Asian monsoon region is underestimated as well. This coupled model considerably well captures the features of the meridional circulation and precipitation of North China. We applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e., IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, to integrate the coupled model for 111 years and then investigate the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 21st century. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast, and makes the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation strengthened (weakened). The precipitation over the Yangtze River valley and North China increases, but the latter increases even significantly. It is suggested that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward to North China in the last three decades of the 21st century. In addition, the precipitation in the East Asian monsoon region would increase significantly in September, implying that the rainy season of the East Asian monsoon would prolong about one month in the future. |
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| Keywords: | East Asian monsoon climate change ocean-atmosphere coupled model |
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