| 影响广西南部县域台风的灾情评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 李广桃,廖梦祺,刘合香.影响广西南部县域台风的灾情评估[J].山东气象,2022,42(2):81-89. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李广桃 廖梦祺 刘合香 |
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| 作者单位： | 南宁师范大学数学与统计学院,广西 南宁 530100;南宁市气象局,广西 南宁 530028;南宁师范大学数学与统计学院,广西 南宁 530100 ；广西北部湾海洋灾害研究重点实 验室,广西 钦州 535000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41665006)；广西壮族自治区气象局科研项目(2021M16) |
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| 摘 要： | 选取2007—2019 年影响广西南部县域台风的致灾及灾情数据,采用灰色关联法计算各灾情指标的关联系数,结合层次分析及熵权法确定组合权重,构建综合灾情指数序列,对影响广西南部县域的台风进行灾情评估。结果发现:防城港市、北海市、钦州市及与其毗邻的县域综合灾情总指数均大于9;南宁市辖区周边多数县域的综合灾情总指数不仅大于 9,且受灾频次不低于 14 次;沿海及经济发达的县域易受到台风袭击并造成灾情,大部分内陆县域受台风影响较小。
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| 关 键 词： | 广西南部县域 台风 灰色关联 组合权重 灾情评估 |
Disaster assessment of typhoon affecting counties in southern Guangxi |
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| LI Guangtao,LIAO Mengqi,LIU Hexiang.Disaster assessment of typhoon affecting counties in southern Guangxi[J].Journal of Shandong Meteorology,2022,42(2):81-89. |
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| Authors: | LI Guangtao LIAO Mengqi LIU Hexiang |
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| Abstract: | Based on the disaster data of typhoons affecting the counties in southern Guangxi from 2007 to 2019,the correlation coefficient of each disaster indicator is calculated by using the grey correlation method,and the combination weight is determined by the combination of analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method to construct the comprehensive disaster index,so as to evaluate typhoon disasters in the counties of southern Guangxi. The results show that the comprehensive disaster index of Fangchenggang,Beihai,Qinzhou,and their adjacent counties are all greater than 9. Most of the counties surrounding Nanning not only have a comprehensive disaster index greater than 9,but also have a disaster frequency of no less than 14 times. Coastal and economically developed counties are vulnerable to typhoons that can cause disasters,while most inland counties are less affected by typhoons. |
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