| 一次局地短时强降水的成因和预报误差分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王文波,高晓梅,杨萌,王世杰,王思扬.一次局地短时强降水的成因和预报误差分析[J].山东气象,2019,39(1):142-150. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王文波 高晓梅 杨萌 王世杰 王思扬 |
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| 作者单位： | （潍坊市气象局，山东 潍坊 261011） |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局科研项目（CMAYBY2016-041）；山东省气象局科研项目（SDYBY2016-07，2014sdqxm14，2015SDQN07） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和多普勒天气雷达资料，对2016年8月6—8日潍坊一次强对流天气的成因和预报误差进行了分析，结果表明：1）500 hPa冷涡底部低槽、850 hPa低涡切变线和地面倒槽是主要影响天气系统, 数值预报对此次天气过程的影响系统预报偏差大，而预报员对数值预报依赖程度高是此次预报失误的主要原因；2）850 hPa以下强的水汽辐合是强降水发生的重要条件，低层辐合和高层辐散配置导致的强垂直上升运动是暴雨产生的动力机制，位势不稳定因中高层的冷空气入侵下沉得以加强；3）列车效应和强回波维持少动是造成短时强降水的重要回波特征，逆风区的发展和移动对于判断强降水的落区有指示作用,多普勒雷达反演风场中的中尺度辐合线是导致局地强降水发生的直接原因；4）风廓线雷达水平风场可以连续地反映降水过程中风场垂直结构及其变化，降水发生前探测高度明显升高，中高层冷空气侵入时间与强降水的时段相对应。
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| 关 键 词： | 短时强降水 数值预报 辐合线 列车效应 |
Analysis on the causes and forecast error of a local short-time heavy rainfall |
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| WANG Wenbo,GAO Xiaomei,YANG Meng,WANG Shijie,WANG Siyang.Analysis on the causes and forecast error of a local short-time heavy rainfall[J].Journal of Shandong Meteorology,2019,39(1):142-150. |
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| Authors: | WANG Wenbo GAO Xiaomei YANG Meng WANG Shijie WANG Siyang |
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| Abstract: | The conventional observation data, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and Doppler weather radar data are utilized to analyze the causes and the forecast error of the severe convective weather from 6 to 8 August 2016 in Weifang. The results are listed as below. 1) The trough at the bottom of the cold vortex at 500 hPa, the low vortex with shear line at 850 hPa, and the surface inverted trough are the main synoptic systems. The numerical forecast has a great deviation of the synoptic systems in this weather process, and the forecaster''s high dependence on it is the main reason for the forecast error. 2) The strong water vapor convergence below 850 hPa is an important condition for the occurrence of the heavy precipitation. The strong ascending motion caused by the configuration of low-level convergence and high-level divergence is the dynamic mechanism of the heavy rainfall. The potential instability is strengthened by the sinking of cold air in the middle and upper levels. 3) The train effect and maintenance of the strong echo are important characters of the heavy rainfall, the development and movement of the upwind area is indicative to the location of the heavy precipitation. The mesoscale convergence line in the retrieval wind field from Doppler radar is a direct cause of the local heavy rainfall. 4) The horizontal wind field from wind profile radar can continuously display the vertical structure of the wind field and its changes during the precipitation process. The detection height obviously increases before the precipitation occurs, and the period of cold air intrusion at middle and high levels corresponds to the period of heavy precipitation. |
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