| 山东半岛夏季降水异常的环流型及影响因子分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 林子伦,郭丽娜,郭飞燕,赵传湖,马艳,孙即霖.山东半岛夏季降水异常的环流型及影响因子分析[J].山东气象,2019,39(1):55-67. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林子伦 郭丽娜 郭飞燕 赵传湖 马艳 孙即霖 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院海洋气象学系，山东 青岛 266100；2.青岛市气象台，山东 青岛 266003） |
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| 基金项目： | 青岛市气象局局校合作科研项目（2015qdqxh02）；公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201306027） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1961—2016年华东地区106个气象观测站的日降水数据和再分析资料，分析引起山东半岛夏季降水异常的大气环流型及其与前期下垫面因子（海温和土壤湿度）的关系，结果发现：1）当孟加拉湾出现西南风异常，日本列岛以南和贝加尔湖西南侧地区分别呈反气旋和气旋式环流异常时，加强了向山东半岛的水汽输送，配合区域大气上升运动异常最终导致山东半岛夏季降水偏多；反之，当孟加拉湾出现西北风异常，日本列岛以南和贝加尔湖西南地区分别呈气旋和反气旋式环流异常时山东半岛降水偏少。2）孟加拉湾和北太平洋中部关键区的对流层整层位势高度与下垫面海温自春季持续至夏季存在显著正相关，当两个地区的整层位势高度均呈正异常时，分别对应夏季孟加拉湾的强西风气流和日本列岛以南的反气旋环流异常。3）区域土壤湿度异常引起的感热和潜热通量异常，可能是引起贝加尔湖关键区位势高度和山东半岛局地对流异常的原因：贝加尔湖西南地区土壤湿度偏大时，其上空对流层位势高度为负异常；山东半岛地区土壤湿度偏大时，其上空对流层大气出现异常上升运动。4）利用关键区春季下垫面因子（海温和土壤湿度）建立山东半岛夏季降水的统计预测模型，留一交叉检验的距平同号率达到75%。这些结果可为山东半岛夏季降水预测提供重要参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 山东半岛 夏季降水预测 大气环流异常 下垫面因子 |
Analysis of atmospheric circulation patterns and influencing factors for summer precipitation anomaly in Shandong Peninsula |
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| LIN Zilun,GUO Lin,GUO Feiyan,ZHAO Chuanhu,MA Yan,SUN Jilin.Analysis of atmospheric circulation patterns and influencing factors for summer precipitation anomaly in Shandong Peninsula[J].Journal of Shandong Meteorology,2019,39(1):55-67. |
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| Authors: | LIN Zilun GUO Lin GUO Feiyan ZHAO Chuanhu MA Yan SUN Jilin |
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| Institution: | (1. Department of Marine Meteorology in College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; 2. Qingdao Meteorological Observatory, Qingdao 266003, China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the daily precipitation data of 106 meteorological stations in East China and NCEP reanalysis data from 1961 to 2016, the atmospheric circulation patterns that cause the summer precipitation anomaly in Shandong Peninsula and their correlations with the underlying surface factors (SST and soil moisture) are analyzed. The results are as follows. 1) When anomalous southwesterly winds occur over the Bay of Bengal, anomalous anticyclonic circulations occur over the south of Japanese Islands, and anomalous cyclonic circulations occur over the southwest of Lake Baikal, the transfer of water vapor to Shandong Peninsula is intensified, and coordinated with anomalous atmospheric ascending movement, the summer precipitation in Shandong Peninsula is more. On the contrary, with the accurance of anomalous northwesterly winds over the Bay of Bengal, anomalous cyclonic circulations over the south of Japanese Islands, and anomalous anticyclonic circulations over the southwest of Lake Baikal, Shandong Peninsula gets less precipitation in summer. 2) A significant positive correlation between geopotential height of the whole troposphere and underlying SST in the critical regions of the Bay of Bengal and central Pacific can persist from spring to summer, and when the geopotential height anomaly of the whole troposphere in the two regions is in the positive phase, the strong westerly wind over the Bay of Bengal and the anticyclone circulation over the south of Japanese Islands occur in summer, respectively. 3) The anomalous sensible heat and latent heat flux caused by the soil moisture anomaly could explain the geopotential height anomaly in the critical regions of Lake Baikal and local convection anomaly in Shandong Peninsula. Higher soil moisture in the southwest of Lake Baikal corresponds to negative anomaly of geopotential height in the upper troposphere and higher soil moisture in Shandong Peninsula corresponds to anomalous ascending movement in the upper troposphere. 4) Using the underlying surface factors (SST and soil moisture) in spring in critical regions, a multivariate statistical regress-forecasting model for summer precipitation is established in Shandong Peninsula, whose anomaly coincidence rate is about 75% by leave-one-out cross validation. These results can provide important reference for summer precipitation prediction in Shandong Peninsula. |
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| Keywords: | Shandong Peninsula summer precipitation prediction atmospheric circulation anomaly underlying surface factors |
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