| 基于WRF模式的青岛近海能见度算法比较研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 高荣珍,李欣,时晓曚,任兆鹏,郝燕,戴京笛.基于WRF模式的青岛近海能见度算法比较研究[J].山东气象,2018,38(2):28-35. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 高荣珍 李欣 时晓曚 任兆鹏 郝燕 戴京笛 |
| |
| 作者单位： | （1.青岛市气象局，山东青岛266003；2.青岛市气象灾害防御工程技术研究中心，山东青岛266003；3.淄博市气象局，山东淄博255000） |
| |
| 基金项目： | 山东省气象科学研究所数值天气预报应用技术开放研究基金项目（SDQXKF2014Z03） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 采用GFS背景场资料和ADAS资料同化系统，使用WRF模式对2014—2016年青岛近海17个海雾个例进行了模拟，分析了3种能见度算法的预报效果。结果表明， FSL（Forecast Systems Laboratory）算法对于沿海站、岸基站雾的预报较SW99（Steolinga and Warner 1999）算法有优势；对于海岛站而言，SW99算法则优于FSL算法。混合算法CVIS（Combined Visibility）较单一算法预报雾准确率有所提高。3种能见度算法基本上是高估能见度的，SW99算法能见度预报均方根误差最大。另外，SW99算法对沿海站、岸基站雾开始时间预报较实况多偏晚，结束时间预报较实况多偏早，持续时间预报较实况多偏短。
|
| 关 键 词： | WRF 能见度预报 青岛近海海雾 SW99算法 FSL算法 CVIS算法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/2/27 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/4/2 0:00:00 |
Comparative study on three algorithms of the visibility in Qingdao offshore areas based on WRF model |
| |
| GAO Rongzhen,LI Xin,SHI Xiaomeng,REN Zhaopeng,HAO Yan,DAI Jingdi.Comparative study on three algorithms of the visibility in Qingdao offshore areas based on WRF model[J].Journal of Shandong Meteorology,2018,38(2):28-35. |
| |
| Authors: | GAO Rongzhen LI Xin SHI Xiaomeng REN Zhaopeng HAO Yan DAI Jingdi |
| |
| Institution: | (1.QingdaoMeteorologicalBureau,Qingdao266003,China;2.QingdaoEngineeringTechnologyResearchCenterforMeteorologicalDisasterPrevention,Qingdao266003,China;3.ZiboMeteorologicalBureau,Zibo255000,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on GFS background data and ARPS Data Assimilation System, visibility forecasts of 17 offshore sea fog cases in Qingdao from 2014 to 2016 are analyzed using the WRF model and three visibility algorithms in this paper. The results show that the FSL algorithm has advantages over the SW99 algorithm in forecasting the fog and its start time for coastal stations and shore based stations, while the latter is better than the former for island stations. The hybrid CVIS algorithm improves the forecast accuracy of fog compared to single algorithm. The three algorithms basically overestimate the visibility, and the SW99 algorithm has the maximum root mean square error in the visibility forecast. In addition, by the SW99 algorithm for coastal stations and shore-based stations, the start time of fog forecast is basically later than the actual time, the end time of forecast earlier, and the duration of forecast shorter. |
| |
| Keywords: | WRF visibility forecast the offshore seafog in Qingdao the SW99 algorithm the FSL algorithm the CVIS algorithm |
|
| 点击此处可从《山东气象》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《山东气象》下载免费的PDF全文 |
