| 1949—2019 年影响山东的热带气旋时空分布及极端降水和大气环流异常 |
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| 引用本文： | 欧阳婧怡,黄菲,许士斌,曹倩.1949—2019 年影响山东的热带气旋时空分布及极端降水和大气环流异常[J].山东气象,2021,41(4):1-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 欧阳婧怡 黄菲 许士斌 曹倩 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室和海洋高等研究院，山东 青岛 266100；2.青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室，山东 青岛 266100) |
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| 基金项目： | 山东省自然科学基金重大基础研究项目（ZR2019ZD12）；国家自然科学基金项目（41975061，42075024） |
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| 摘 要： | 使用中国气象局热带气旋资料中心的热带气旋最佳路径数据集和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料提供的月平均数据，对北上影响山东的热带气旋（tropical cyclone，TC）及其造成的极端降水进行统计分析，并揭示了有利于 TC北移影响山东的大气环流特征。结果表明：影响山东的 TC主要出现 于 6—9 月，其中盛夏时节（7、8 月）TC对山东影响最大；TC影响山东时，强度主要为台风及以下等 级，或已发生变性；TC会引发山东极端降水事件，TC极端降水多出现在夏秋季（7—9 月），其中8月的占比最大，9月次之，TC降水在极端降水事件中的占比约为 10%，但年际变化大，有些年份占比达60%以上，特别是1990 年以来 TC对极端降水的贡献显著增强；影响山东的 TC主要生成于西 北太平洋，多为转向型路径；当500 hPa位势高度异常场呈太平洋一日本遥相关型的正位相时，TC更易北上影响山东，此时西北太平洋副热带高压位置偏北，其外围气流会引导TC北上转向，对华东地区造成影响；850 hPa上，南海至西北太平洋存在异常气旋式环流，对流活跃，夏季风环流和季风槽加强，有利于TC的生成和发展，同时，华东、华南上空有异常上升运动，涡度增大，垂直风切变减小，水汽充沛，TC登陆后强度能得到较好的维持。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 山东 极端降水 大气环流 太平洋一日本遥相关型 季风槽 |
Spatial and temporal distribution of tropical cyclones affecting Shandong as well as the extreme precipitations and atmospheric circulation anomalies from 1949 to 2019 |
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| OUYANG Jingyi,HUANG Fei,XU Shibin,CAO Qian.Spatial and temporal distribution of tropical cyclones affecting Shandong as well as the extreme precipitations and atmospheric circulation anomalies from 1949 to 2019[J].Journal of Shandong Meteorology,2021,41(4):1-10. |
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| Authors: | OUYANG Jingyi HUANG Fei XU Shibin CAO Qian |
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| Institution: | (1. Physical Oceanography Laboratory, CIMST/Institute of Advanced Ocean Study, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; 2. Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266100, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the tropical cyclone best track dataset from the China Meteorological Administration Tropical Cyclone Data Center and the monthly reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), this paper analyzes the northward moving tropical cyclones (TC) that affect Shandong and the extreme precipitation caused by them, also reveals the atmospheric circulation characteristics that are favorable for TCs to move northward and influence Shandong. The results show that the TCs affecting Shandong mainly occur from June to September, with the greatest impact in midsummer (July and August). When TCs affect Shandong, their intensity levels are mainly typhoon or below, or extratropical transition occured. These TCs can cause extreme precipitation events in Shandong, most of which occur in summer and autumn (July-September), with the largest proportion in August and the second in September. The proportion of extreme precipitation events caused by TCs is about 10% of total, but its interannual variation is large, reaching more than 60% in some years. Especially, the contribution of TC to extreme precipitations in Shandong has significantly increased since 1990. The TCs affecting Shandong are mainly generated in the northwest Pacific, and most of them have a turning path. When there is a positive phase of the Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern at 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly field, TC is more likely to move northward and affect Shandong. At this time, the position of the northwest Pacific subtropical high is northward, while the airflow on its southwest edge can lead TC to move northward, affecting east China. It is conducive to the generation and development of TC when there are abnormal cyclonic circulations over the South China Sea and the northwest Pacific at 850 hPa, with active convection and enhanced summer monsoon circulation and monsoon trough. Moreover, the abnormal ascending motion, increased vorticity, reduced vertical wind shear, and abundant water vapor over east and south China are conducive to maintaining the strength of TC after landing. |
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| Keywords: | tropical cyclones Shandong province extreme precipitation general circulation Pacific-Japan teleconnection patten monsoon trough |
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