| 基于模糊时间序列的华南台风登陆时最大风速极值预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 王萌,刘合香,卢耀健,李广桃.基于模糊时间序列的华南台风登陆时最大风速极值预测模型[J].山东气象,2019,39(4):68-74. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王萌 刘合香 卢耀健 李广桃 |
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| 作者单位： | （1. 南宁师范大学数学与统计科学学院，广西 南宁 530001；2. 广西北部湾海洋灾害研究重点实验室，广西 钦州 535000） |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41665006，11561009）；广西重点研发计划项目（桂科AB19110020） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1995—2017年登陆华南地区的台风登陆时最大风速极值数据，构建基于模糊时间序列的台风登陆时最大风速极值预测模型，并将该模型与传统时间序列ARIMA模型作对比。其预测结果表明，模糊时间序列的平均绝对误差、平均相对误差和均方根误差分别为2.621 m·s-1、0.066和2.727 m·s-1，预测的精确度明显高于传统时间序列ARIMA模型，同时也表明将模糊时间序列应用于登陆时最大风速极值的预测能够获得较理想的预测结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 模糊时间序列 模糊化 登陆时最大风速极值 华南台风 风速预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/6/26 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/10/17 0:00:00 |
Prediction model of extreme value of maximum wind speed when typhoon makes landfall over South China based on fuzzy time series |
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| WANG Meng,LIU Hexiang,LU Yaojian,LI Guangtao.Prediction model of extreme value of maximum wind speed when typhoon makes landfall over South China based on fuzzy time series[J].Journal of Shandong Meteorology,2019,39(4):68-74. |
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| Authors: | WANG Meng LIU Hexiang LU Yaojian LI Guangtao |
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| Institution: | (1. College of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530001, China; 2. Guangxi Key Laboratory of Marine Disaster in the Beibu Gulf, Qinzhou 535000, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the extreme value data of the maximum wind speed when typhoon makes landfall over South China from 1995 to 2017, a prediction model of extreme values based on fuzzy time series is constructed, and the model is compared with the traditional time series ARIMA model. The prediction results show that the mean absolute error, mean relative error, and root mean square error of the fuzzy time series are 2.621 m·s-1, 0.066, and 2.727 m·s-1, respectively. The accuracy of the model is obviously higher than that of the traditional time series ARIMA model. At the same time, it shows that the application of fuzzy time series to the prediction of extreme values of the maximum wind speed when typhoon makes landfall can obtain better prediction results. |
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| Keywords: | fuzzy time series fuzzification maximum wind speed at landing typhoon over South China prediction of wind speed |
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