| 山东区域汛期旱涝预测概论 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈菊英.山东区域汛期旱涝预测概论[J].山东气象,2001,21(3):12-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈菊英 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院,北京,100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 对1951－2000年期间汛期（6－8月）山东区域旱涝与全国主要多雨带的8个分布类型的逐年对应关系进行了具体的对比和论述。并对烟台、青岛、潍坊、济南、临沂、菏泽等6个地区汛期旱涝的天文、海洋、大气环流和气象要素等方面的预报物理因子进行了全面的普查、筛选、精选和综合分析，并分别建立了汛期降水量预报物理方程。并以青岛地区为例，对汛期降水理的多种交叉学科的预报物理因子进行了最优集成，为青岛地区和水量和旱涝建立了分多级的可操作的预报物理模型。该文优选出来的汛期降水的多学科物理因子对短期气候预测有重要的学术意义，其中所建立的预报物理方程和预报物理模型对山东省各区汛期旱涝的季度和年度预报有重要的应用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 全国汛期雨型 山东地区 响应关系 汛期旱涝 降水量 预报物理方程 预报物理模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-0582(2001)03-0012-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年8月3日 |
Introduction and Discussion for Prediction Physical Methods of the Flood and Drought in the Flood Season over the Areas of Shandong Province |
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| CHEN JU-ying.Introduction and Discussion for Prediction Physical Methods of the Flood and Drought in the Flood Season over the Areas of Shandong Province[J].Journal of Shandong Meteorology,2001,21(3):12-17. |
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| Authors: | CHEN JU-ying |
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| Abstract: | The annual corresponding relations between the flo od and drought of the flood season (JJA) in the areas of Shandong province and t he 8 distribution patterns of the main rainy-bands over the whole country durin g 1951-2000, are contrasted an d discussed in detail. And the predicted physical factors including astronomy, o cean, General circulation, meteorological element, ect, which influence on the f lood and drought of the flood season over the 6 areas of Yantai, Qingdao, Weifan g, Jinan, LinYi, and Heze, are made for general survey, screen selection, carefu lly chosen and integrated analysis, and the predictive physical equations are se t up for the precipitation of the flood season in the 6 areas, respectively.In addition, the multi-categorical and operable predicative physical models are developed for the precipitation and flood and drought of flood season in Qingda o region.The multi-branch physical factors choiced carefully, which are mention ed above f or precipitation of the flood season (JJA), have the great academic value. Among them, the Predictive Physical equations and model have the important applied va lue for the seasonal and annual prediction of flood and drought of flood season( JJA) in the Shandong region. |
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| Keywords: | Patterns of the main rainy-bands Precipitation of Flood sea son Flood and drought predictive physical equations and model Shandong provi nce |
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