| 风廓线雷达垂直速度与地面降雨关系研究：以济南为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 邱粲,王栋成,李娟,曹洁,董旭光.风廓线雷达垂直速度与地面降雨关系研究：以济南为例[J].山东气象,2017,37(4):91-100. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邱粲 王栋成 李娟 曹洁 董旭光 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东省气候中心，山东 济南 250031 |
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| 基金项目： | 山东省气象局科研项目（2014SDQXZ05） |
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| 摘 要： | 基于风廓线雷达数据产品的垂直速度资料和地面气象观测站2014年分钟降雨记录，采用多项式非线性拟合方法，探讨了各季节特征高度层垂直速度与地面降雨之间的相关关系；并根据场次降雨过程的分钟数据分析了垂直速度阈值对降雨开始、结束时间以及降雨强度的指示性。结果表明，垂直速度能够反映雨滴的下落速度特征，综合各个高度层来看，700 m高度层垂直速度与小时雨量回归方程拟合优度较为稳定，其他高度层在不同季节拟合优度差别略大；垂直速度的大小虽不能完全定量地预报降雨强度，但对于整个过程的雨强波动变化有着明显的指示性作用，700 m高度层垂直速度对于降雨的预报指示效果最为稳定。垂直速度对降水的指示性可用于灾害性天气，如暴雨、冰雹、降雪等的预警及临近预报，其阈值的确定受降水相态、降水类型、气温、湿度、湍流等影响，且并非唯一指标。
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| 关 键 词： | 风廓线雷达 垂直速度 拟合 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/9/30 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/10/26 0:00:00 |
Study on the relationship between vertical velocity of wind profiler and rainfall: A case in Jinan |
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| QIU Can,WANG Dongcheng,LI Juan,CAO Jie,DONG Xuguang.Study on the relationship between vertical velocity of wind profiler and rainfall: A case in Jinan[J].Journal of Shandong Meteorology,2017,37(4):91-100. |
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| Authors: | QIU Can WANG Dongcheng LI Juan CAO Jie DONG Xuguang |
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| Institution: | Shandong Provincial Climate Centre, Jinan 250031, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the vertical velocity data of wind profiler and the minute level precipitation data of AWS in 2014, the relationship between the vertical velocity and the ground rainfall is discussed by using the polynomial nonlinear fitting method. The minute level data of both vertical velocity and precipitation of rainfall events shows that the vertical velocity threshold is a good clue for rainfall start, end time and rainfall intensity. The results show that vertical velocity can reflect the falling velocity characteristics of the raindrops. According to the analysis on each layer, the goodness-of-fit of the rainfall and the vertical velocity regression equation at the height of 700 m is the most stable, and the other layers have different goodness-of-fit in each season. Although the value of the vertical velocity cannot predict rainfall intensity quantitatively, it can be used as an obvious indication for the fluctuation of rainfall intensity through the entire process. The vertical velocity at 700 m level is the most stable indicator for rainfall forecast. The indication of vertical velocity for precipitation can be used for early warning and nowcasting of severe weather, such as heavy rain, hail, snowfall. The vertical velocity threshold is determined by the precipitation phase, temperature, humidity, turbulence and so on. But it is not the only indicator. |
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| Keywords: | wind profiler vertical velocity fitting |
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