| 登陆热带气旋降水预报研究回顾与展望 |
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| 引用本文： | 任福民,向纯怡.登陆热带气旋降水预报研究回顾与展望[J].山东气象,2017,37(4):8-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任福民 向纯怡 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室，北京 100081； 2. 国家气象中心，北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目（41375056, 41675042）；厦门市科技计划项目（3502Z20174051） |
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| 摘 要： | 重点围绕登陆热带气旋（LTC）降水预报研究进行了回顾和总结，指出针对LTC降水有三类预报技术：动力模式、统计方法和动力-统计结合的预报方法。以数值天气预报（NWP）模式为代表的预报技术对LTC降水的预报能力仍然非常有限。改进NWP模式预报误差的途径主要有两条：一是发展NWP模式；二是发展动力-统计结合的方法。分析表明，动力-统计相似预报是一项很有潜力的技术；针对现有研究中的不足，开展LTC降水动力-统计相似预报研究，探索减小数值模式LTC降水预报误差的有效方法，将是一个充满希望的研究领域和方向。
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| 关 键 词： | 登陆热带气旋 降水预报 研究回顾 展望 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/10/26 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/11/19 0:00:00 |
Review and prospect of researches on the prediction of precipitation associated with landfalling tropical cyclones |
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| Abstract: | This paper mainly reviews and summarizes the researches on the prediction of precipitation associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (LTC), and pointed out that there are three types of forecasting techniques for precipitation:dynamic model, statistical method and dynamic-statistical combining forecasting method.The forecasting technology, mainly represented by the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, is still very limited in its ability to forecast LTC precipitation. There are two main ways to improve the forecast error of NWP model: one is to develop NWP model; the other is to develop the dynamic-statistical method. The analysis shows that the dynamic-statistical similarity prediction is a promising technology. In view of the shortcomings in the existing research,to study on the dynamic-statistical similarity forecasting method and to explore the effective method to reduce the numerical model prediction error for LTC precipitation will be a promising field and direction of study. |
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| Keywords: | landfalling tropical cyclone precipitation prediction research review prospect |
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