| 集合预报研究及应用进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 侯建伟,庞华基.集合预报研究及应用进展[J].山东气象,2005,25(2):5-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 侯建伟 庞华基 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 青岛市气象局,山东,青岛,266003;中国海洋大学,山东,青岛,266003
2. 青岛市气象局,山东,青岛,266003 |
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| 摘 要： | 从初值扰动的生成方法、数值预报模式的建立、输出产品的提炼应用等方面简要概括了集合预报的最新进展。指出，运用BGM法生成初值扰动效果较好，多模式集合预报正成为天气预报的发展趋势；集合概率预报是集合预报的最佳结果，但发布还需要做大量的普及推广和培训工作；集合预报正在被越来越多的国家投入准业务运行和业务运行．有可能成为新的主流预报方式。
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| 关 键 词： | 集合预报 初值扰动 数值模式 应用 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-0582(2005)02-0005-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年12月13 |
The Evolvement of Reseach and Application about the Ensemble Numerical Prediction |
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| HOU Jian-wei,PANG Hua-ji.The Evolvement of Reseach and Application about the Ensemble Numerical Prediction[J].Journal of Shandong Meteorology,2005,25(2):5-7. |
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| Authors: | HOU Jian-wei PANG Hua-ji |
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| Institution: | HOU Jian-wei~ |
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| Abstract: | This paper briefly sums up the new development of the ensemble numerical prediction concerning the production method of the initial perturbation, the establishment of the numerical forecasting model, the abstraction and application of the output production,etc.It points out that BGM method is the better way to create the initial perturbation. The multi-model ensemble numerical prediction is becoming a trend. The ensemble Probabilistic forecasting is the best consequence of the numerical prediction, but a lot of works such as popularization and training should be done before its publication. The ensemble numerical prediction has been applying in the quasi-operation forecasting and operation forecasting by more and more countries and regions. The ensemble numerical prediction is likely to become a new mainstream method of weather prediction. |
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| Keywords: | ensemble numerical prediction initial perturbation numerical forecasting model application |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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