| 甘肃地质灾害气象等级预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王锡稳,张铁军,冯军,王遂缠,刘治国.甘肃地质灾害气象等级预报研究[J].甘肃气象,2004,22(1):8-12. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王锡稳 张铁军 冯军 王遂缠 刘治国 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]兰州中心气象台，甘肃兰州730020 [2]陇南地区气象局，甘肃武都746000 |
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| 基金项目： | 2003年兰州中心气象台科技创新基金项目资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用甘肃省近40a地质灾害相关资料，介绍了甘肃省地质灾害的现状、地理分布特征和发生地质灾害的特点，阐明暴雨等气象因素是诱导甘肃地质灾害的主要因素，研究了甘肃省地质灾害气象预报的方法，建立了地质灾害气象预报的初步模式，并利用甘肃省2003年地质灾害实况进行效果检验，发现准确率达到73．3％以上，证明其预报模式具有一定的预报能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 地质灾害 气象等级预报 气象因素 甘肃 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-7639(2004)-01-0008-05 |
Study of the Geological Calamity Meteorological Grade Prediction in Gansu Province |
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| WANG Xi-wen,ZHANG Tie-jun,FENG jun,WANG Sui-chan,LIU Zhi-guo.Study of the Geological Calamity Meteorological Grade Prediction in Gansu Province[J].Gansu Meteorology,2004,22(1):8-12. |
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| Authors: | WANG Xi-wen ZHANG Tie-jun FENG jun WANG Sui-chan LIU Zhi-guo |
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| Institution: | WANG Xi-wen~1,ZHANG Tie-jun~1,FENG jun~2,WANG Sui-chan~1,LIU Zhi-guo~1 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the geological calamity relevant materials of the past 40 years in Gansu province, the current situations, geographical distribution characteristic of geological calamity and its happening characteristic in Gansu were introduced. It also demonstrated that the meteorological factors such as hard rain etc, are the main factors leading geological calamity in Gansu. The prediction method of geological calamity was given out and the preliminary prediction mode was set up as well, and its effect was examined by using geological calamity which was actually happening in 2003 in Gansu province, found that the rate of accuracy reaches more than 73%, it proved that the prediction mode has certain prediction ability. |
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| Keywords: | Gansu province geological calamity weather forecast |
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