| 湖南冻雨预报关键技术指标及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚蓉,黎祖贤,许霖,唐杰,陈静静.湖南冻雨预报关键技术指标及应用[J].甘肃气象,2014(3):366-372. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚蓉 黎祖贤 许霖 唐杰 陈静静 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南省气象台,湖南长沙410118 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业专项“冬季降水相态研究——南方区域冻雨发生机制及预报方法研究”（GYHY201006010）;中国气象局关键技术“集成预报技术在中期天气预报中的应用”共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1951~2009年冬季湖南探空和地面观测资料,对湖南冻雨时空分布、过程发生频次、过程持续日数及冻雨的各层气温统计分布特征进行了统计分析,并通过研究提炼了湖南冬季冻雨预报技术指标和空间概念模型。检验和预报应用表明:厚度因子比温度因子判据TS评分高,而厚度与温度因子混合判据评分更高;冻雨预报判据指标结合南方冻雨大气环流空间概念模型在2013年1月湘中以南冻雨过程预报业务应用中,预报效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 冻雨 统计分析 空间概念模型 预报指标 |
Key Technical Indicators and Application Analysis About Forecast of Freezing Rain Weather in Hu’nan Province |
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| YAO Rong,LI Zuxian,XU Lin,TANG Jie,CHEN Jingjing.Key Technical Indicators and Application Analysis About Forecast of Freezing Rain Weather in Hu’nan Province[J].Gansu Meteorology,2014(3):366-372. |
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| Authors: | YAO Rong LI Zuxian XU Lin TANG Jie CHEN Jingjing |
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| Institution: | ( Hu＇ nan Meteorological Observatory, Changsha 410118, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the sounding data and ground observation data in winter during 1951-2009 in Hu’nan,the temporal and spatial distribution of freezing rain weathers,the frequencies and the lasting duration of the freezing rain weather in Hu’nan,as well as temperature features in each layer under the freezing weather were analyzed firstly. Moreover,the forecast technology indicators and space conceptual model of freezing rain weather in Hu’nan have been refined. The testing results and forecasting application show that the TS score of thickness factor was higher than that of temperature factor,but the mixing factor of thickness and temperature had the highest TS score. The combination of freezing rain forecast criterion indicators and spatial conceptual model of atmospheric circulation of freezing rain weathers made good effects in prediction of the freezing rain weather process which occurred in the south region of the middle Hu’nan in January 2013. |
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| Keywords: | freezing rain statistical analysis space conceptual model forecast index |
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