| 利用天气关键区相似法预测西江流域6月延伸期强降水天气过程 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑凤琴,钟利华,罗小莉,韦晶晶,史彩霞.利用天气关键区相似法预测西江流域6月延伸期强降水天气过程[J].甘肃气象,2020(3):490-496. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑凤琴 钟利华 罗小莉 韦晶晶 史彩霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西壮族自治区气象服务中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 广西科学研究与技术开发计划项目(1598017-15);广西自然科学基金项目(2016GXNSFAA380330)共同资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对西江流域强降水过程预报,采用1960—2017年西江流域135个气象站点资料和北半球500 hPa NCEP/NCAR逐日环流场资料,在多雨年500 hPa大气环流合成分析的基础上,确定影响强降水过程的天气关键区范围。进一步利用关键区形值相似集成方法,通过EOF对环流场进行展开,提取主要特征量及恢复场,与历史同期EOF主要特征恢复场进行对比,寻找最佳形值相似年,并对强降水过程出现时段进行预测。利用该方法对2008年6月西江流域延伸期大雨以上强降水过程的出现时段进行预报试验和近5 a的预测效果检验,结果表明天气关键区相似法对西江流域延伸期降水过程有良好的预测效果,可应用于日常西江流域延伸期强降水过程预报业务中。
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| 关 键 词： | 天气关键区 动态相似 延伸期天气过程 西江流域 |
Prediction of Extended-range Heavy Rainfall Processes in June in Xijiang River Basin Based on Similarity Method of Synoptic Key Areas |
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| ZHENG Fengqin,ZHONG Lihua,LUO Xiaoli,WEI Jingjing,SHI Caixia.Prediction of Extended-range Heavy Rainfall Processes in June in Xijiang River Basin Based on Similarity Method of Synoptic Key Areas[J].Gansu Meteorology,2020(3):490-496. |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Fengqin ZHONG Lihua LUO Xiaoli WEI Jingjing SHI Caixia |
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| Institution: | (Guangxi Meteorological Science and Technology Service Center,Nanning 530022,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to forecast heavy precipitation processes in the Xijiang River Basin,the synoptic key regions were determined firstly on the basis of 500 hPa atmospheric circulation synthetic analysis in more heavy rainfall years by using daily rainfall data from 135 meteorological stations in the Xijiang River Basin and NCAR/NCEP daily reanalysis data of 500 hPa geopotential height in the northern hemisphere from 1960 to 2017.Furthermore,the dynamic similarity ensemble-mean method in synoptic key regions was adopted to perform extended-range forecast tests of heavy rainfall processes.Specifically,the empirical orthogonal functions(EOF)method was used to extract and reconstruct principle spatial patterns of 500 hPa geopotential height in past few months,and the years with most similarities were chosen by comparing the constructed circulation patterns at the same period in each year via an analogous precursor method.Finally,the periods of heavy precipitation processes in the Xijiang River Basin in June of 2008 were forecasted by using the above method,and the prediction effects of heavy precipitation processes in recent five years were tested.The results indicate that heavy precipitation processes over the Xijiang River Basins could be forecasted well based on the synoptic key region analogous method,which could be used in actual extended range weather forecast service. |
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| Keywords: | synoptic key areas dynamic similarity extended-range weather processes the Xijiang River Basin |
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