| 银川市灰霾天气环流分析及预报思路 |
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| 引用本文： | 纪晓玲,桑建人,马筛艳,郑鹏辉,马金仁.银川市灰霾天气环流分析及预报思路[J].甘肃气象,2013(4):820-824. |
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| 作者姓名： | 纪晓玲 桑建人 马筛艳 郑鹏辉 马金仁 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]宁夏气象防灾减灾重点试验室,宁夏银川750002 [2]宁夏气象台,宁夏银川750002 [3]宁夏气候中心,宁夏银川750002 |
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| 基金项目： | 宁夏科技攻关项目“宁夏灰霾天气形成机理、预报预测及防治对策研究”（KGX一12-10-04）及“宁夏自然科学基金项目（NZ12280）共同资助作 |
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| 摘 要： | 以2000—2009年416次银川市发生的灰霾天气为研究对象，利用同期NCEP逐日再分析海平面气压场、500hPa形势场资料，分析了银川市灰霾天气发生的变化特征及易产生灰霾天气的中层环流形势和地面气压场分布特征，给出了灰霾天气预报思路。分析发现：银川市灰霾天气平均每年发生近42d，最多可达61d；一年四季均有可能发生，且季节变化明显，秋冬季是灰霾和持续性灰霾天气易发季节，特别是每年的11～12月；灰霾天气多发生在环流形势相对稳定的背景下，当500hPa宁夏处于西北气流、平直西风气流、西南气流中，地面位于锋前暖区或气压梯度较小区域或锋面过境前后易出现灰霾天气，有时受暖高压脊控制也可以出现灰霾天气。在灰霾天气易发季节，当出现有利于发生灰霾天气的环流背景和地面气压场分布特征时，要综合分析大气环流形势演变、高低层系统配置状况、大气层结稳定状态和各种气象要素的变化，并结合卫星云图等观测资料来确定灰霾天气发生的可能性。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰霾天气 环流分析 预报思路 |
Circulation Analysis and Forecast Thoughts of Haze Weather in Yinchuan |
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| JI Xiaoling,SANG Jianren,MA Shaiyan,ZHENG Penghui,MA Jinren.Circulation Analysis and Forecast Thoughts of Haze Weather in Yinchuan[J].Gansu Meteorology,2013(4):820-824. |
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| Authors: | JI Xiaoling SANG Jianren MA Shaiyan ZHENG Penghui MA Jinren |
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| Institution: | 1. Ningxia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction, Yinchuan 750002, China; 2. Ningxia Meteorological Observatory, Yiuchuan 750002, China; 3. Ningxia Climate Center, Yinchuan 750002 ,China) |
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| Abstract: | The haze forecast ideas given here were deduced by analyzing the variable characteristics of haze weather, the feature of the circulation situation on the middle level and surface pressure field distribution which generally led to haze weather in Yinchuan. Based on the NCEP daily reanalyzed sea level pressure（SLP） and 500 hPa geopotential height field, 416 haze weather cases which happened in Yinchuan from 2000 to 2009 were studied and the analysis results indicated that the haze weathers occured about 42 d per year by average and up to 61 d in the most in Yinchuan, and the haze weathers appeared easily in autumn and winter, especially in November and December. The haze weathers usually occurred under a relatively stable situation, when it was the northwest flow, smooth westerly flow, or southwest flow at the level of 500 hPa, and on the surface, Ningxia was in the warm region before the front, or the slight pres- sure gradient area, or the front was nearly crossing Ningxia or just crossed. When Ningxia was controlled by warm ridge, it could also lead to haze. In the seasons of haze weather occurs frequently, we should comprehensively analyze the evolution of atmospheric circula- tion situation, configuration of systems at the up and bottom, the steady state of stratification and variabilities of each meteorological facters, when it appears favorable circulation background and surface pressure distribution, we should combine the satellite images with other observations to determine the possibility of haze weather occurrence. |
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| Keywords: | haze circulation forecast idea |
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