| 石家庄夏季用电量对天气的响应及其预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 阎访,陈静,车少静.石家庄夏季用电量对天气的响应及其预测模型[J].甘肃气象,2009,27(3):282-287. |
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| 作者姓名： | 阎访 陈静 车少静 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北省石家庄市气象局,河北,石家庄,050081 |
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| 摘 要： | 从石家庄市2005～2007年每年6～8月的逐日用电量资料中分离出随气象因子变化的气象电量,分有、无降水日分别计算了气象电量与同期气象资料中关键气象要素的相关系数,着重分析了气象电量随气温、湿度、降水的变化规律.结果表明:石家庄夏季气象电量与气温呈显著性正相关,而与相对湿度仅在有降水日为显著负相关;计算了用电量逐日变化值与气象要素日变化值之间的相关系数,发现要素差值之间存在着很好的相关性.在统计分析的基础上,借助Origin7.5软件,分有、无降水日建立了综合气象因子影响下气象电量及用电量逐日变化的多元回归预测模型,回归统计及方差分析表明:预测方程均通过了α=0.0005的F检验,复相关高于单相关,拟合率较高,能为电力部门合理调度提供参考.
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| 关 键 词： | 用电量 气象分析 预测模型 |
Response of Electric Power Load to Weather in Summer of Shijiazhuang and Its Prediction Model |
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| YAN Fang,CHEN Jing,CHE Shaojing.Response of Electric Power Load to Weather in Summer of Shijiazhuang and Its Prediction Model[J].Gansu Meteorology,2009,27(3):282-287. |
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| Authors: | YAN Fang CHEN Jing CHE Shaojing |
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| Institution: | Shijiazhuang Meteorological Bureau of Hebei Province;Shijiazhuang 050081;China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data of daily demand for electricity from June to August during the period of 2005-2007 in Shijiazhuang,the meteorological electric quantity varied with weather factors was set apart,and the correlation coefficients between meteorological electric quantity on rainy days or clear days and key meteorological factors on the same period were calculated respectively,especially the meteorological electric quantity changing rules with temperature,humidity and precipitation were studied.The results sho... |
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| Keywords: | electric quantity weather analysis prediction model |
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