| 沙尘暴天气的归类判别分析预报模式 |
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| 引用本文： | 高涛,刘景涛,康铃.沙尘暴天气的归类判别分析预报模式[J].甘肃气象,2001,19(2):14-20. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高涛 刘景涛 康铃 |
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| 作者单位： | 内蒙古气象研究所(高涛)，内蒙古气象台!内蒙古呼和浩特010051(刘景涛，康铃) |
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| 摘 要： | 在大量分析了历史上 4 0年发生在内蒙古中西部地区的 37场沙尘暴天气过程的基础上 ,总结归纳了其大气环流特征 ,将他们划分成 4个环流类型。参考SaatyT .L .,提出的综合选优的方法1] ,建立判别矩阵 ,然后计算归类判别预报 ,根据判别函数值判断实时待判样本的归属。参照归属类历史沙尘暴的天气形势和实况出现的范围以及强度作出沙尘暴天气预报 ,并设计了一个沙尘暴天气的归类判别分析预报模式。该模式已较成功地应用于 2 0 0 0年春季内蒙古地区的沙尘暴天气预报业务中 ,取得了较好的预报效果。实践证明 ,它是一个客观化、定量化和计算自动化的实用的预报模式 ,是我们目前作沙尘暴预报的重要技术手段之一。
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| 关 键 词： | 沙尘暴 大气环流特征 判别分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-7639(2001)-02-0014-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年2月25日 |
Objective pattern discriminating model for dust storm forecasting |
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| GAO Tao,LIU Jing-tao,KANG Ling.Objective pattern discriminating model for dust storm forecasting[J].Gansu Meteorology,2001,19(2):14-20. |
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| Authors: | GAO Tao LIU Jing-tao KANG Ling |
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| Abstract: | For forecasting dust storms in central and western area of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,a classified discrimination approach has been developed.According to the historical meteorological circulation patterns,we have classified the 37 strong historical dust-storm events in this area during the last 40 years into four patterns.Using the method suggested by Saaty T.L,a priority relationship matrix was set up and then,the discriminating function.Depending on the values of the function,we can judge whether the real-time situation belongs to one of the four patterns and if so,to which one.If it belongs to one pattern,then we can use this historical typical event as a background for forecasting a dust storm.Its successful applications were shown by the using during the spring of year 2000. |
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| Keywords: | Dust storm Discriminating analysis Circulation patterns |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
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