| 利用ECMWF产品对庆阳极端气温释用效果分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴爱敏,路亚奇,李祥科,张洪芬,徐燕.利用ECMWF产品对庆阳极端气温释用效果分析[J].甘肃气象,2009,27(3):288-293. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴爱敏 路亚奇 李祥科 张洪芬 徐燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 吴爱敏(中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃,兰州,730020;甘肃庆阳市气象局,甘肃,庆阳,745000);路亚奇,李祥科,张洪芬,徐燕(甘肃庆阳市气象局,甘肃,庆阳,745000) |
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| 基金项目： | 甘肃省气象局多模式气温释用及预报集成项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用CMSVM的回归方法,用2003～2007年的欧洲数值预报格点资料和庆阳市8个自动站极端气温资料建立最高最低气温预报模型.2008年业务运行效果检验评估表明:5 d最高、最低气温综合平均预报准确率达到64%和71%,对实时业务有较好的指导作用.最高、最低气温准确率随着预报时效的延长效果降低,最低比最高气温的预报准确率高.最低气温预报效果春夏季好于秋冬季,最高气温相反.最高、最低气温绝对误差和平均误差都随预报时效的延长增大,最高比最低气温平均绝对误差大,二者的平均误差接近,均为正值,预报值具有偏高的倾向.对9月明显变化过程的评估表明,最高最低气温预报与实况演变的趋势相似.
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| 关 键 词： | 欧洲预报 极端气温 释用 效果分析 |
Effect Analysis on Interpretation of Extreme Temperature by ECMWF Products in Qingyang |
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| WU Aimin,LU Yaqi,LI Xiangke,ZHANG Hongfen,XU Yan.Effect Analysis on Interpretation of Extreme Temperature by ECMWF Products in Qingyang[J].Gansu Meteorology,2009,27(3):288-293. |
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| Authors: | WU Aimin LU Yaqi LI Xiangke ZHANG Hongfen XU Yan |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Arid Meteorology;CMA;Key Laboratory of Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province;Lanzhou 730020;China;2.Qingyang Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province;Qingyang 745000;China |
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| Abstract: | The prediction model for the highest and lowest temperature is established by the CMSVM regression method based on ECMWF data and the extreme temperature observations from 8 automatic weather stations in Qingyang of Gansu Province from 2003 to 2007.The effect test in 2008 operation forecast indicated that the rate of average forecast accuracy is 64% and 71% for the highest and lowest temperature in 5 days,which has the good instruction for the real-time weather service.The forecast accuracy rate of the high... |
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| Keywords: | ECMWF Products the extreme temperature interpretation effect analysis |
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