| 兰州市冰雹预报方法研究及系统介绍 |
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| 引用本文： | 王学良,付朝,乔艳君,段文广.兰州市冰雹预报方法研究及系统介绍[J].甘肃气象,2004,22(3):63-67. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王学良 付朝 乔艳君 段文广 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州市气象局,甘肃,兰州,730020;兰州市气象局,甘肃,兰州,730020;兰州市气象局,甘肃,兰州,730020;兰州市气象局,甘肃,兰州,730020 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科技部社会公益类项目(2002DIB10046)资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 采用近10a5～9月天气资料为样本，结合兰州地形、地貌、地理位置以及兰州冰雹时空分布、天气气候等特点，应用高空、地面、数值预报产品，以区域内任一点的冰雹为预报对象，以24h不漏报为原则，以自动和人机交互结合的方式进行消空条件、入型条件、启动系统、冰雹有无的判别，制作了兰州冰雹天气的短期(短时)预报工具，主要侧重于为人工消雹作业提供预警、预报信息。2004年5月业务试运行中，成功预报2次局地小冰雹，准确率达67％。
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| 关 键 词： | 冰雹 预报方法 兰州 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-7639(2004)-03-0063-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年8月10日 |
Study on Forecasting Methods of Hail Storm in Lanzhou City |
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| WANG Xue-liang,FU Zhao,QIAO Yan-jun,DUAN Wen-guang.Study on Forecasting Methods of Hail Storm in Lanzhou City[J].Gansu Meteorology,2004,22(3):63-67. |
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| Authors: | WANG Xue-liang FU Zhao QIAO Yan-jun DUAN Wen-guang |
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| Abstract: | Based on May to September weather cases during recent 10 years, together with the geographic information and the distribution of hail storms weather and climate in Lanzhou,applying the products of the upper and surface observation and the numerical weather prediction et al.,the weather forecasting methods for hail storms in Lanzhou are formed.The forecasting object is hail storms at anywhere in the area, the principle is no failed forecast in 24 hours, the identification of the hail storms is according to methods of the combination of the automation and man-computer interaction. These methods mainly provide the early warning and forecasting information for hail prevention operation. We successfully forecasted two local hail processes by this operational forecasting system in May in 2004, and the forecast accuracy reaches about 67%. |
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| Keywords: | hail storm forecasting methods Lanzhou |
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