Co-dynamics of climate policy stringency and public support |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, UAB, Edifici Z, UAB Campus, 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain;2. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegraphenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;3. Technical University of Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany;4. Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, Ulitsa Mira 19, 620002 Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation;5. ICREA, Passeig de Lluís Companys 23, 08010 Barcelona, Spain;6. School of Business and Economics & Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands |
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| Abstract: | Public support for stringent climate policies is currently weak. We develop a model to study the dynamics of public support for climate policies. It comprises three interconnected modules: one calculates policy impacts; a second translates these into policy support mediated by social influence; and a third represents the regulator adapting policy stringency depending on public support. The model combines general-equilibrium and agent-based elements and is empirically grounded in a household survey, which allows quantifying policy support as a function of effectiveness, personal wellbeing and distributional effects. We apply our approach to compare two policy instruments, namely carbon taxation and performance standards, and identify intertemporal trajectories that meet the climate target and count on sufficient public support. Our results highlight the importance of social influence, opinion stability and income inequality for public support of climate policies. Our model predicts that carbon taxation consistently generates more public support than standards. Finally, we show that under moderate social influence and income inequality, an increasing carbon tax trajectory combined with progressive revenue redistribution receives the highest average public support over time. |
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| Keywords: | Carbon taxation Performance standards Income inequality Opinion dynamics Social network |
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