The future urban heat-wave challenge in Africa: Exploratory analysis |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute for Sustainable Cities, Department of Geography, Hunter College, City University of New York (CUNY), 695 Park Ave, New York, NY 10065, United States;2. Department of Planning, Technical Faculty of IT and Design, Aalborg University Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV, Denmark;3. Grove School of Engineering, Steinman Hall T-188, City College of New York, CUNY, 160 Convent Ave, New York, NY 10031, United States |
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| Abstract: | Urbanization and climate change are among the most important global trends affecting human well-being during the twenty-first century. One region expected to undergo enormous urbanization and be significantly affected by climate change is Africa. Studies already find increases in temperature and high temperature events for the region. How many people will be exposed to heat events in the future remains unclear. This paper attempts to provide a first estimate of the number of African urban residents exposed to very warm 15-day heat events (>42 °C). Using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways framework we estimate the numbers of exposed, sensitive (those younger than 5 and older than 64 years), and those in low-income nations, with gross national products of $4000 ($2005, purchasing power parity), from 2010 to 2100. We examine heat events both with and without urban heat island estimates. Our results suggest that at the low end of the range, under pathways defined as sustainable (SSP 1) and low relative levels of climate change (RCP 2.6) without including the urban heat island effect there will be large populations (>300 million) exposed to very warm heat wave by 2100. Alternatively, by 2100, the high end exposure level is approximately 2.0 billion for SSP 4 under RCP 4.5 where the urban heat island effect is included. |
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| Keywords: | Urban Heat wave Climate change Africa Exposure Exploratory scenarios |
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