How to achieve the 2030 CO2 emission-reduction targets for China's industrial sector: Retrospective decomposition and prospective trajectories |
| |
| Institution: | 1. School of Chemical Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266580, China;2. School of Urban and Regional Science, Institute of Finance and Economics Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China;1. College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, People''s Republic of China;2. College of Economics and Management, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling, 712100, People''s Republic of China;1. Department of Economics, Business School, East China Normal University, 500 Dongchuan Road, Shanghai 200241, China;2. Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy, China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China;3. Newhuadu Business School, Minjiang University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350108, China;1. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands;2. NewClimate Institute, Cologne, Germany;3. Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands;4. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria;5. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, The Netherlands;1. School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030, China;2. School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China;3. School of Management, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The Chinese government actively follows the low-carbon development pattern and has set the definite targets of reducing carbon emissions by 2030. The industrial sector plays a significant role in China's economic growth and CO2 emissions. This is the first study to present a specific investigation on the retrospective decomposition (1993–2014) and prospective trajectories (2015–2035) of China's industrial CO2 emission intensity (ICEI) and industrial CO2 emissions (ICE), aiming at China Industrial Green Development Plan 2016–2020 targets and China's 2030 CO2 emission-reduction targets. We introduce process carbon intensity, investment and R&D factors into the decomposition model and make a combination of dynamic Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis to identify whether and how the targets would be realized from a sector-specific perspective. The results indicate that investment intensity is the primary driver for the increase in ICEI, while R&D intensity and energy intensity are the leading contributors to the reduction in ICEI. Under existing policies, it is very possible for the industrial sector to achieve the 2020 and 2030 intensity-reduction targets. However, the realization of 2030 emission-peak target has some uncertainties and needs extra efforts in efficiency improvement and structural adjustment. All the five scenarios would achieve the 2020 and 2030 intensity-reduction targets, except Scenario N4 for China Industrial Green Development Plan 2016–2020 target. Nonetheless, only three scenarios would realize the 2030 emission-peak target. With strong efficiency improvement and structural adjustment, ICE would hit the peak in 2025. In contrast, with high/low efficiency improvement and weak structural adjustment, ICE would fail to reach the peak before 2035. Both ICEI and ICE have substantial mitigation potentials with the enhancement of efficiency improvement and structural adjustment. Finally, we suggest that the Chinese government should raise the baseline requirements of efficiency improvement and structural adjustment for the industrial sector to achieve China’s 2030 targets. |
| |
| Keywords: | Emission-reduction target Industrial sector R&D Scenario analysis Monte Carlo simulation |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
