Livestock production and the water challenge of future food supply: Implications of agricultural management and dietary choices |
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| Institution: | 1. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;1. Department of Agricultural Economics and Management, China Academy for Rural Development, Zhejiang University, Yuhangtang Road 866, 310058 Hangzhou, P.R. China;2. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;3. Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt University of Berlin, Philippstr.13, 10115 Berlin, Germany;4. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, St Lucia, Australia;5. Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, University of Goettingen, Platz der Göttinger Sieben 5, 37073 Göttingen, Germany;6. Centre for Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Goettingen, Büsgenweg 1, 37077 Göttingen, Germany |
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| Abstract: | Human activities use more than half of accessible freshwater, above all for agriculture. Most approaches for reconciling water conservation with feeding a growing population focus on the cropping sector. However, livestock production is pivotal to agricultural resource use, due to its low resource-use efficiency upstream in the food supply chain. Using a global modelling approach, we quantify the current and future contribution of livestock production, under different demand- and supply-side scenarios, to the consumption of “green” precipitation water infiltrated into the soil and “blue” freshwater withdrawn from rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Currently, cropland feed production accounts for 38% of crop water consumption and grazing involves 29% of total agricultural water consumption (9990 km3 yr?1). Our analysis shows that changes in diets and livestock productivity have substantial implications for future consumption of agricultural blue water (19–36% increase compared to current levels) and green water (26–69% increase), but they can, at best, slow down trends of rising water requirements for decades to come. However, moderate productivity reductions in highly intensive livestock systems are possible without aggravating water scarcity. Productivity gains in developing regions decrease total agricultural water consumption, but lead to expansion of irrigated agriculture, due to the shift from grassland/green water to cropland/blue water resources. While the magnitude of the livestock water footprint gives cause for concern, neither dietary choices nor changes in livestock productivity will solve the water challenge of future food supply, unless accompanied by dedicated water protection policies. |
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| Keywords: | Livestock Productivity Dietary changes Consumptive water use Water scarcity Water resources |
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