The economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: Ice sheet vulnerability and the social cost of carbon dioxide |
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| Institution: | 1. Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transport Unit, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Edificio EXPO, C/Inca Garcilaso, 3, 41092 Seville, Spain;2. Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1AG, UK;1. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China;2. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China;3. Collaborative Innovation Center of Electric Vehicles in Beijing, Beijing, China;4. Robert B. Willumstad School of Business, Adelphi University, Garden City, NY, USA;1. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China;2. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China;3. Collaborative Innovation Center of Electric Vehicles in Beijing, Beijing, China;4. Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing, Beijing, China;1. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China;2. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China;3. Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Economics and Environmental Management, Beijing 100081, China;4. Collaborative Innovation Center of Electric Vehicles in Beijing, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | The possibility of extreme sea-level rise is one of the commonly cited reasons for concern about climate change. Major increases in sea level would likely be driven by the melting or collapse of major ice sheets. This possibility has implications for the social cost of carbon dioxide, which is a key policy value as well as a useful summary measure of damage caused by greenhouse gas emissions.This paper extends earlier work on the importance of low-probability, high-impact events for the social cost of carbon dioxide to incorporate the possibility of extreme sea-level rise.To estimate its impact, an integrated assessment model is used, which allows a probabilistic assessment of climate change damages based on the linkages between the economic and climate systems. In the model, the generic discontinuity damage is replaced with the possibility of large-scale damage from factors that are taken to be correlated with temperature rise and, crucially for this paper, explicit consideration of extreme sea-level rise.Estimates of the amount of increase in the social cost of carbon dioxide that can be expected from incorporating extreme sea-level rise show that the increase is significant, though not especially large in percentage terms.The paper contributes to the literature of how to represent uncertain climate impacts in integrated assessment models and the associated estimation of the social cost of carbon dioxide. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Integrated assessment models Social cost of carbon dioxide Sea-level rise |
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