| Seasonal and Extraseasonal Predictions of Summer Monsoon Precipitation by Gcms |
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| 引用本文： | 曾庆存,袁重光,李旭,张荣华,杨芳林,张邦林,卢佩生,毕训强,王会军.Seasonal and Extraseasonal Predictions of Summer Monsoon Precipitation by Gcms[J].大气科学进展,1997(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 曾庆存 袁重光 李旭 张荣华 杨芳林 张邦林 卢佩生 毕训强 王会军 |
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| 作者单位： | Zeng Qingcun，Yuan Chongguang，Li Xu，Zhang Ronghua，Yang Fanglin，Zhang Banglin，Lu Peisheng，Bi Xunqiang and Wang Huijun Institute of Atmospheric Physics，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100080 |
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| 摘 要： | ＳｅａｓｏｎａｌａｎｄＥｘｔｒａｓｅａｓｏｎａｌＰｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎｓｏｆＳｕｍｍｅｒＭｏｎｓｏｏｎＰｒｅｃｉｐｉｔａｔｉｏｎｂｙＧｃｍｓ①ＺｅｎｇＱｉｎｇｃｕｎ（曾庆存），ＹｕａｎＣｈｏｎｇｇｕａｎｇ（袁重光），ＬｉＸｕ（李旭），ＺｈａｎｇＲｏｎｇ...
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Seasonal and Extraseasonal Predictions of Summer Monsoon Precipitation by Gcms |
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| Zeng Qingcun,Yuan Chongguang,Li Xu,Zhang Ronghua,Yang Fanglin,Zhang Banglin,Lu Peisheng,Bi Xunqiang and Wang Huijun Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing.Seasonal and Extraseasonal Predictions of Summer Monsoon Precipitation by Gcms[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1997(2). |
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| Authors: | Zeng Qingcun Yuan Chongguang Li Xu Zhang Ronghua Yang Fanglin Zhang Banglin Lu Peisheng Bi Xunqiang and Wang Huijun Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing |
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| Institution: | Zeng Qingcun,Yuan Chongguang,Li Xu,Zhang Ronghua,Yang Fanglin,Zhang Banglin,Lu Peisheng,Bi Xunqiang and Wang Huijun Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100080 |
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| Abstract: | A semi-operational real time short-term climate prediction system has been developed in the Center of Climate and Environment Prediction Research (CCEPRE), Institute of Atmospheric Physics/Chinese Academy of Sciences. The system consists of the following components: the AGCM and OGCM and their coupling, initial conditions and initialization, practical schemes of anomaly prediction, ensemble prediction and its standard deviation, correction of GCM output, and verification of prediction. The experiences of semi-operational real-time prediction by using this system for six years (1989-1994) and of hindcasting for 1980-1989 are reported. It is shown that in most cases large positive and negative anomalies of summer precipitation resulting in disastrous climate events such as severe flood or drought over East Asia can be well predicted for two seasons in advance, although the quantitatively statistical skill scores are only satisfactory due to the difficulty in correctly predicting the signs of small anomalies. Some methods for removing the systematic errors and introducing corrections to the GCM output are suggested. The sensitivity of prediction to the initial conditions and the problem of ensemble prediction are also discussed in the paper. |
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| Keywords: | Seasonal and Extraseasonal Predictions General Circulation Model |
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