| Prediction of Monthly Mean Surface Air Temperature in a Region of China |
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| 作者姓名： | Jeong-Hyeong LEE Keon-Tae SOHN |
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| 作者单位： | [1]Division of Management Information Science, Dong-A University, Busan 604-714, Korea [2]Department of Statistics, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735, Korea |
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| 基金项目： | Acknowledgements. This paper was carried out using the Dong-A University Research Fund （2005）. |
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| 摘 要： | In conventional time series analysis, a process is often modeled as three additive components： linear trend, seasonal effect, and random noise. In this paper, we perform an analysis of surface air temperature in a region of China using a decomposition method in time series analysis. Applications to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） Collaborative Reanalysis data in this region of China are discussed. The main finding was that the surface air temperature trend estimated for January 1948 to February 2006 was not statistically significant at 0.5904℃ （100 yr）^-1. Forecasting aspects are also considered.
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| 关 键 词： | 中国 地区 月平均地面气温 预测 时间序列 分解法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-06-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-09-29 |
Prediction of monthly mean surface air temperature in a region of China |
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| Jeong-Hyeong LEE,Keon-Tae SOHN.Prediction of Monthly Mean Surface Air Temperature in a Region of China[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2007,24(3):503-508. |
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| Authors: | Jeong-Hyeong Lee Keon-Tae Sohn |
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| Institution: | Division of Management Information Science, Dong-A University, Busan 604-714, Korea,Department of Statistics, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735, Korea |
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| Abstract: | In conventional time series analysis, a process is often modeled as three additive components: linear trend, seasonal effect, and random noise. In this paper, we perform an analysis of surface air temperature in a region of China using a decomposition method in time series analysis. Applications to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Collaborative Reanalysis data in this region of China are discussed. The main finding was that the surface air temperature trend estimated for January 1948 to February 2006 was not statistically significant at 0.5904℃ (100 yr)-1.Forecasting aspects are also considered. |
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| Keywords: | Chinese region surface air temperature time series decomposition method regression |
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