A GCM-Based Forecasting Model for the Landfall of Tropical Cyclones in China |
| |
| Authors: | SUN Jianqi and Joong Bae AHN |
| |
| Institution: | Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, Division of Earth Environmental System, Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Pusan 609735, Korea,Division of Earth Environmental System, Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Pusan 609735, Korea |
| |
| Abstract: | A statistical dynamic model for forecasting Chinese landfall of tropical
cyclones (CLTCs) was developed based on the empirical relationship between
the observed CLTC variability and the hindcast atmospheric circulations from
the Pusan National University coupled general circulation model (PNU-CGCM).
In the last 31 years, CLTCs have shown strong year-to-year variability, with
a maximum frequency in 1994 and a minimum frequency in 1987. Such features
were well forecasted by the model. A cross-validation test showed that the
correlation between the observed index and the forecasted CLTC index was
high, with a coefficient of 0.71. The relative error percentage (16.3%)
and root-mean-square error (1.07) were low. Therefore the coupled model
performs well in terms of forecasting CLTCs; the model has potential for
dynamic forecasting of landfall of tropical cyclones. |
| |
| Keywords: | statistical-dynamical model cyclone forecast tropical cyclone coupled model cross validation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《大气科学进展》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《大气科学进展》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
