Improving multimodel weather forecast of monsoon rain over China using FSU superensemble |
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| Authors: | T N Krishnamurti A D Sagadevan A Chakraborty A K Mishra A Simon |
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| Institution: | Department of Meteorology, Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306,Department of Meteorology, Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306,Department of Meteorology, Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306,Department of Meteorology, Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306,Department of Meteorology, Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306 |
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| Abstract: | In this paper we present the current capabilities for numerical weather prediction of precipitation
over China using a suite of ten multimodels and our superensemble based forecasts. Our suite of models includes
the operational suite selected by NCARs TIGGE archives for the THORPEX Program. These are: ECMWF, UKMO, JMA,
NCEP, CMA, CMC, BOM, MF, KMA and the CPTEC models. The superensemble strategy includes a training and a forecasts
phase, for these the periods chosen for this study include the months February through September for the years 2007
and 2008. This paper addresses precipitation forecasts for the medium range i.e. Days 1 to 3 and extending out to
Day 10 of forecasts using this suite of global models. For training and forecasts validations we have made use of
an advanced TRMM satellite based rainfall product. We make use of standard metrics for forecast validations that
include the RMS errors, spatial correlations and the equitable threat scores. The results of skill forecasts of
precipitation clearly demonstrate that it is possible to obtain higher skills for precipitation forecasts for Days
1 through 3 of forecasts from the use of the multimodel superensemble as compared to the best model of this suite.
Between Days 4 to 10 it is possible to have very high skills from the multimodel superensemble for the RMS error of
precipitation. Those skills are shown for a global belt and especially over China. Phenomenologically this product
was also found very useful for precipitation forecasts for the Onset of the South China Sea monsoon, the life cycle
of the mei-yu rains and post typhoon landfall heavy rains and flood events. The higher skills of the multimodel
superensemble make it a very useful product for such real time events. |
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| Keywords: | THORPEX ensemble mean superensemble TRMM South China Sea monsoon |
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