| Seasonal Forecast of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset Disturbed by Cold Tongue La Niña in the Past Decade |
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| 作者姓名： | Ning JIANG Congwen ZHU |
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| 作者单位： | State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Climate System,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Climate System,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China |
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| 基金项目： | and the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences;html;the National Science Natural Foundation of China;gov/psd/;This study was also supported by the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change;and the scientific development foundation of CAMS;Jeremy Cheuk-Hin LEUNG's polishing;This work was jointly sponsored by the National Key R&D Program;metoffice;gov;The HadISSTl dataset was obtained from the Met Office Hadley Centre and can be downloaded from http://www;The NOAA High-resopolated OLR data,and CMAP precipitation data,provided by NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD,Boulder,Colorado,USA,can be obtained from their website at https://www;noaa;The authors acknowledge the anonymous reviewers'helpful suggestions,and Dr;esrl;uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download |
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| 摘 要： | It has been suggested that a warm(cold)ENSO event in winter is mostly followed by a late(early)onset of the South China Sea(SCS)summer monsoon(SCSSM)in spring.Our results show this positive relationship,which is mainly determined by their phase correlation,has been broken under recent rapid global warming since 2011,due to the disturbance of cold tongue(CT)La Ni?a events.Different from its canonical counterpart,a CT La Ni?a event is characterized by surface meridional wind divergences in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific,which can delay the SCSSM onset by enhanced convections in the warming Indian Ocean and the western subtropical Pacific.Owing to the increased Indian?western Pacific warming and the prevalent CT La Ni?a events,empirical seasonal forecasting of SCSSM onset based on ENSO may be challenged in the future.
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| 关 键 词： | monsoon onset SCSSM ENSO cold tongue La Ni?a seasonal forecast |
Seasonal Forecast of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset Disturbed by Cold Tongue La Nina in the Past Decade |
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| Ning JIANG,Congwen ZHU.Seasonal Forecast of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset Disturbed by Cold Tongue La Nina in the Past Decade[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2021,38(1):147-155. |
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| Authors: | Ning JIANG Congwen ZHU |
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| Abstract: | It has been suggested that a warm(cold)ENSO event in winter is mostly followed by a late(early)onset of the South China Sea(SCS)summer monsoon(SCSSM)in spring.Our results show this positive relationship,which is mainly determined by their phase correlation,has been broken under recent rapid global warming since 2011,due to the disturbance of cold tongue(CT)La Nina events.Different from its canonical counterpart,a CT La Nina event is characterized by surface meridional wind divergences in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific,which can delay the SCSSM onset by enhanced convections in the warming Indian Ocean and the western subtropical Pacific.Owing to the increased Indian-western Pacific warming and the prevalent CT La Nina events,empirical seasonal forecasting of SCSSM onset based on ENSO may be challenged in the future. |
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| Keywords: | monsoon onset SCSSM ENSO cold tongue La Nina seasonal forecast |
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