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The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature in South Korea using dynamic linear models |
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| Authors: | Keon-Tae SOHN Deuk-Kyun RHA Young-Kyung SEO |
| Institution: | Dept. of Statistics, Pusan National University, 30 Jangjeon-dong, Geumjung-gu, Pusan 609-735, Korea,Korea Meteorological Administration, 460-18 Shindaebang-dong, Tongjak-gu, Seoul 156-720, Korea,Korea Meteorological Administration, 460-18 Shindaebang-dong, Tongjak-gu, Seoul 156-720, Korea |
| Abstract: | The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from +00 h out to +45 h in South Korea(38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematicerror of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values ofthe DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecastswith RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction. |
| Keywords: | temperature forecasting systematic error dynamic linear model |
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