| Simulating Crop Net Primary Production in China from 2000 to 2050 by Linking the Crop-C model with a FGOALS＇s Model Climate Change Scenario |
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| 引用本文： | 张稳,黄耀,孙文娟,俞永强.Simulating Crop Net Primary Production in China from 2000 to 2050 by Linking the Crop-C model with a FGOALS＇s Model Climate Change Scenario[J].大气科学进展,2007,24(5):845-854. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张稳 黄耀 孙文娟 俞永强 |
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| 作者单位： | State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry,
Institute of Atmospheric Physics，Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry,
Institute of Atmospheric Physics，Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry,
Institute of Atmospheric Physics，Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,
Institute of Atmospheric Physics，Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 |
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| 基金项目： | This work was jointly supported by the grants of the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCXlSW-01-13) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC Grant No. 40431001, 40231004). |
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| 摘 要： | Net primary production （NPP） of crop represents the capacity of sequestrating atmospheric CO2 in agro-ecosystem, and it plays an important role in terrestrial carbon cycling. By linking the Crop-C model with climate change scenario projected by a coupled GCM FGOALS via geographical information system （GIS） techniques, crop NPP in China was simulated from 2000 to 2050. The national averaged surface air temperature from FGOALS is projected to increase by 1.0℃ over this period and the corresponding atmospheric CO2 concentration is 535 ppm by 2050 under the IPCC A1B scenario. With a spatial resolution of 10 ×10 km^2, model simulation indicated that an annual average increase of 0.6 Tg C yr^-1 （Tg=10^12 g） would be possible under the A1B scenario. The NPP in the late 2040s would increase by 5% （30 Tg C） within the 98×10^6 hm^2 cropland area in contrast with that in the early 2000s. A further investigation suggested that changes in the NPP would not be evenly distributed in China. A higher increase would occur in a majority of regions located in eastern and northwestern China, while a slight reduction would appear in Hebei and Tianjin in northern China. The spatial characteristics of the crop NPP change are attributed primarily to the uneven distribution of temperature change.
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| 关 键 词： | 农作物 净初级生产量 农业生态系统 气候变化 作物-碳模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 31 May 2006 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-05-31 |
Simulating crop net primary production in China from 2000 to 2050 by linking the Crop-C model with a FGOALS’s model climate change scenario |
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| Zhang?Wen,Huang?Yao,Sun?Wenjuan,Yu?Yongqiang.Simulating crop net primary production in China from 2000 to 2050 by linking the Crop-C model with a FGOALS’s model climate change scenario[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2007,24(5):845-854. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Wen Huang Yao Sun Wenjuan Yu Yongqiang |
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| Institution: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;2.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 |
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| Abstract: | Net primary production (NPP) of crop represents the capacity of sequestrating atmospheric CO2 in
agro-ecosystem, and it plays an important role in terrestrial carbon cycling. By linking the Crop-C model with
climate change scenario projected by a coupled GCM FGOALS via geographical information system (GIS) techniques,
crop NPP in China was simulated from 2000 to 2050. The national averaged surface air temperature from FGOALS is
projected to increase by 1.0C over this period and the corresponding atmospheric CO2 concentration is
535 ppm by 2050 under the IPCC A1B scenario. With a spatial resolution of 10x10 km2, model simulation indicated
that an annual average increase of 0.6 Tg C yr-1 (Tg=1012 g) would be possible under the A1B scenario.
The NPP in the late 2040s would increase by 5\% (30 Tg C) within the 98x06 hm2 cropland area in contrast with
that in the early 2000s. A further investigation suggested that changes in the NPP would not be evenly distributed
in China. A higher increase would occur in a majority of regions located in eastern and northwestern China, while
a slight reduction would appear in Hebei and Tianjin in northern China. The spatial characteristics of the crop NPP
change are attributed primarily to the uneven distribution of temperature change. |
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| Keywords: | crop NPP Crop-C FGOALS simulation climate change GIS |
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