| 2008年T213与德国降水数值预报产品对比检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴曼丽,梁寒,王瀛,沈玉敏.2008年T213与德国降水数值预报产品对比检验[J].辽宁气象,2009(4):22-26. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴曼丽 梁寒 王瀛 沈玉敏 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]辽宁省气象台,辽宁沈阳110016 [2]沈阳区域气候中心,辽宁沈阳110016 |
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| 基金项目： | 2006年辽宁省气象局课题“东北地区数值预报产品释用”资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 为了解各种数值预报的误差特点，更好地在预报过程中选择数值预报产品作为参考依据，将中国国家气象中心的T213降水预报与德国降水预报分别进行晴雨预报检验，对2008年5—8月东北地区降水资料进行对比分析。结果表明：两种模式24-120h预报正确率为60％-70％，随着预报时效的增加，正确率呈下降趋势，德国降水预报的正确率高于T213，两种预报漏报率均明显小于空报率，T213漏报率较低，为5％左右，德国降水预报空报率较低，为20％左右。对2008年4-6月出现东北冷涡过程的两种模式降水预报进行对比分析，发现德国降水预报正确率明显高于T213预报，对冷涡降水预报有一定的指示意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水数值预报产品 检验 准确率 对比检验 冷涡降水预报 |
Contrast tests of precipitation products between T213 and Germany numerical prediction in 2008 |
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| WU Man-li,LIANG Han,WANG Ying,SHEN Yu-min.Contrast tests of precipitation products between T213 and Germany numerical prediction in 2008[J].Liaoning Meteorological Quarterly,2009(4):22-26. |
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| Authors: | WU Man-li LIANG Han WANG Ying SHEN Yu-min |
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| Institution: | 1. Liaoning Meteorological Observation, Shenyang 110016, China; 2. Shenyang Regional Climate Center, Shenyang 110016, China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to understand the error features of various numerical forecast products and to select appropriate numerical forecast products as references ,precipitation forecasts were verified based on T213 and Germany numerical prediction, and they were contrasted with real precipitation from May to August 2008 in Northeast China. The results indicate that the accuracy rates of 24-120 h precipitation forecast can reach 60%-70% based on two mod- els. The accuracy rates decrease with the increase of prediction period. The accuracy rates of Germany precipitation forecast are higher than those of T213 ,and missing forecast rates of both models are lower than vacancy forecast rates. The missing forecast rates of T213 are low and about 5%. The vacancy forecast rates of Germany precipitation forecast is low and about 20%. The comparison of the precipitation forecasts from both the models are contrasted when northeast cold vortex happens from April to June 2008. It found that the accuracy rates of Germany precipitation forecast are higher than those of T213, which is a good indicative significance to forecast of northeast cold vortex. |
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| Keywords: | Precipitation numerical forecast products Verification Accuracy rates Contrast test Precipitation forecast of northeast cold vortex |
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