| 利用T213物理量“垂叠法”模型制作沙澧河上游关键区面雨量预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 王红燕,张晓鹏,靖春悦,张树立,侯 凯,尹 彬.利用T213物理量“垂叠法”模型制作沙澧河上游关键区面雨量预报[J].气象与环境科学,2010,33(4):43-47. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王红燕 张晓鹏 靖春悦 张树立 侯 凯 尹 彬 |
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| 作者单位： | 许昌市气象局，河南 许昌 461000 |
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| 基金项目： | 河南省气象局气象科学技术研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用沙澧河流域上游关键区2003-2006年6-8月降水资料和同时段T213产品中预报产品,分析了关键区强降水发生前24h T213产品中比湿、相对湿度、水汽通量、水汽通量散度、假相当位温、垂直速度等物理量垂直空间结构特征,并根据不同特征,构建T213物理量"垂叠法"暴雨和大雨预报模型,对沙澧河流域上游关键区分别作大雨以上(面雨量≥20mm)和暴雨以上(面雨量≥40mm)强降水预报。通过检验和试用,该预报模型对2007-2009年6-8月沙澧河流域上游关键区面雨量≥20mm强降水预报准确率平均达54.2%,对面雨量≥40mm强降水预报准确率平均为38.9%。
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| 关 键 词： | T213物理量 重叠法 空间预报模型 预报检验 |
Area Rainfall Forecast in the Key Area of Sha-li River Upstream With T213 Physical Quantity Vertical Superposition Method |
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| Wang Hongyan,Zhang Xiaopeng,Jing Chunyue,Zhang Shuli,Hou kai,Yin Bin.Area Rainfall Forecast in the Key Area of Sha-li River Upstream With T213 Physical Quantity Vertical Superposition Method[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2010,33(4):43-47. |
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| Authors: | Wang Hongyan Zhang Xiaopeng Jing Chunyue Zhang Shuli Hou kai Yin Bin |
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| Institution: | Xuchang Meteorological Office, Xuchang 461000, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the rainfall data and forecast produce in the key area of Sha-li river upstream in June-August, 2003-2006, the paper analyzed the T213 model within the 24 h before strong rainfall occurring, such as specific humidity, relative humidity, moisture flux, moisture flux divergence, pseudo equivalent potential temperature and vertical velocity. The T213 physical quantity vertical superposition method was developed to forecast heavy rain (area rainfall is greater than 20 mm) and torrential rain (area rainfall is greater than 40 mm) in the key areas of Sha-li river. The forecast verification and trial results showed that the mean forecasting accuracy of the method came to 54.2% for heavy rain and 38.9% for torrential rain respectively in June-August, 2007-2009. |
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| Keywords: | T213 physical quantity superposition method spatial forecasting model forecast verification |
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