| 临夏地区强降水气候变化特征及其影响条件分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙玉莲,祁晓龙,马玉坤,马俊强,刘辉,罗鹏斌,许显鑫.临夏地区强降水气候变化特征及其影响条件分析[J].气象与环境科学,2020,43(1):68-74. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙玉莲 祁晓龙 马玉坤 马俊强 刘辉 罗鹏斌 许显鑫 |
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| 作者单位： | 临夏州气象局,甘肃临夏,731100 |
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| 基金项目： | 西北区域人工影响天气能力建设研究实验项目-祁连山北坡地形云人工增雨(雪)技术研究试验 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用临夏19802016年强降水实况资料及EC数值预报产品资料,分析了临夏地区强降水气候变化特征及其影响条件。结果表明:临夏强降水分布具有明显的地域特点,自北向南递增,北部旱区的少,西南部山区的多。临夏强降水年、月、日特征变化显著。2000s是强降水的高峰期,1980s强降水相对较少;7、8月份强降水发生概率占全年强降水的66.1%;强降水发生属于典型的夜雨型和午后傍晚型,夜间(20:0024:00)强降水发生概率最高,为30.8%~53.8%,其次为凌晨(01:0008:00),发生概率为14.3%~36.4%。临夏强降水发生主要有中高纬西风带冷槽或冷涡型、青藏高原低值系统型、副热带高压影响型。对西宁、兰州、合作三站累计频率阈值计算和检验结果表明,杰弗逊指数阈值为80,符合率为100%;沙氏指数阈值为4,符合率为79%;改进K指数阈值为10,符合率为79%。
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| 关 键 词： | 临夏地区 强降水 气候特征 系统 模型 阈值 |
Analysis on the Climate Change Feature of Heavy Precipitation in Linxia Region and Its Influence Conditions |
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| Sun Yulian,Qi Xiaolong,Ma Yukun,et al..Analysis on the Climate Change Feature of Heavy Precipitation in Linxia Region and Its Influence Conditions[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2020,43(1):68-74. |
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| Authors: | Sun Yulian Qi Xiaolong Ma Yukun |
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| Institution: | (Linxia Meteorological Office,Linxia 731100,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper uses the observation data of heavy precipitation data and the EC numerical forecast products from 1980 to 2016,and analyzes the characteristics and influence conditions of climate change of severe precipitation in Linxia,Gansu Province.The results are as follows:The distribution of heavy precipitation in Linxia has obvious regional characteristics,increasing from north to south,with less in the north dry areas and more in the southwest mountainous areas.The changes in the characteristics of the annual,monthly and daily heavy precipitation in Linxia are significant.The 2000s was the peak period of heavy precipitation while in the 1980s it was less relatively.The occurrence probability of heavy precipitation in July and August takes up 66.1%of the annual heavy precipitation.The heavy precipitation in Linxia is of typical night rain type and afternoon-and-evening rain type.The highest probability of heavy precipitation appears at night(20:0024:00),which is 30.8%53.8%,followed by the probability of occurrence in the early(01:0008:00),accounting for 14.3%36.4%.The heavy precipitations in Linxia are mainly caused by the cold trough or cold vortex of the westerly wind in the mid-high latitude,the Tibeten Plateau low-value system and the subtropical high.The calculating and verifying results of the accumulated frequency thresholds of the three stations in Xining,Lanzhou and Hezuo demonstrate that the Jefferson index threshold is 80,and the coincidence rate is 100%;the Shah’s index threshold is 4,and the coincidence rate is 79%;and the improved K index threshold is 10,and the coincidence rate is 79%. |
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| Keywords: | Linxia region heavy precipitation climatic characteristics system model threshold |
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