| 基于WheatSM模型参数优化的鹤壁地区冬小麦生长发育模拟研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李彤霄,李颖,田宏伟,等..基于WheatSM模型参数优化的鹤壁地区冬小麦生长发育模拟研究[J].气象与环境科学,2018,41(4):105-109. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李彤霄 李颖 田宏伟 等. |
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| 摘 要： | 采用EFAST方法和SCE-UA算法优化WheatSM模型参数,采用区域模拟和单站插值的方法对2013—2017年鹤壁市冬小麦各发育期日数和产量进行模拟修订,为WheatSM作物模型在豫北地区的业务应用提供参考。研究发现:区域模拟方法对鹤壁地区冬小麦生育期开始日期的模拟效果除出苗期、越冬期的外,其他均好于单点插值方法的。单点插值方法对越冬期的模拟效果明显好于区域模拟方法的。冬小麦产量的模拟效果区域模拟方法也比单点插值方法好,但两种结果的相对误差均较大。通过对WheatSM模型得到的冬小麦气象产量模拟结果进行修订,可以明显提高模型产量模拟结果。2013—2017年鹤壁地区模拟产量的误差为-17. 92%～-2. 98%,RMSE为1114. 9 kg/hm~2,NMSE为12. 59,模拟效果较好。利用区域模拟方法可以对区域内单个站点的冬小麦生长发育和产量进行模拟,但对越冬期开始时间的模拟需要参考单点插值方法的相应结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 冬小麦 作物生长模拟 WheatSM模型 产量修订 |
Simulation of Growth and Development of Winter Wheat in Hebi Area Based on Optimization of WheatSM Model Parameters |
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| Li Tongxiao,Li Ying,Tian Hongwei,et al..Simulation of Growth and Development of Winter Wheat in Hebi Area Based on Optimization of WheatSM Model Parameters[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2018,41(4):105-109. |
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| Authors: | Li Tongxiao Li Ying Tian Hongwei |
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| Abstract: | Based on the WheatSM model parameters optimized by EFAST and SCE UA, regional simulation and single station interpolation methods,the development days and yields of winter wheat in Hebi during 20132017 were simulated,and the yields simulating way was also revised.It provides reference for the business application of WheatSM crop model in North Henan.The results showed that the simulation results of regional simulation method were better than the single point interpolation method except seedling stage and overwintering stage in the simulation of the start date of winter wheat in Hebi area.The simulation effect of single point interpolation on overwintering stage is better than that of regional simulation.The regional simulated effect on winter wheat yield is also better than the single point interpolation method,but the relative errors of the two results are large.By revising the simulation results of winter wheat meteorological yield from WheatSM model,the simulation effect of model yield can be improved obviously.The error of simulated output in Hebi region in 20132017 is -17.92%-2.98%,RMSE is 1114.9 kg/hm2,NMSE is 12.59,and the simulation effect is good.The regional simulation method can be used to simulate the growth and yield of winter wheat in the single location of the region,but it is necessary to refer to the single point interpolation method for the simulation of the starting days of wintering period. |
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| Keywords: | AMDAR data quality control radiosonde observation air temperature regression analysis |
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