| 几种雷电灾害风险评估计算方法应用对比分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 马俊贵,纳丽,齐晓鹏,马永红,陶世银.几种雷电灾害风险评估计算方法应用对比分析[J].气象与环境科学,2018,41(2):131-135. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马俊贵 纳丽 齐晓鹏 马永红 陶世银 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室;宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室;石嘴山市气象局;莱州市气象局;青海省气象灾害防御技术中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 雷电灾害风险评估中,雷击风险的计算方法有人工计算、Excel表格计算和软件计算3种。选取石嘴山一油库为案例,依据风险管理标准(GB/T 21714.2 -2015),分别采用人工、Excel和软件方法,计算该油库雷电风险总量和风险分量。计算结果显示,软件计算风险总值相对人工计算值总是偏高,特别是对于易燃易爆场所,比人工计算、Excel计算值高20~30倍;人工方法、Excel方法风险总值计算结果较为一致。造成差别的原因是,人工计算主观性大,不同的评估人员在风险分量的选取及计算过程中会出现较大的差别,容易忽略部分风险分量,从而造成风险总量的减少。在风险分量的组成上,对第三类防雷建筑物,人工计算结果更符合实际;对第一、二类防雷建筑物,软件计算结果更符合实际。
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| 关 键 词： | 雷电灾害风险评估 人工计算 Excel 软件计算 油库 |
Comparative Analysis for Different Calculation Methods of Lightning Disaster Risk Evaluation |
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| Ma Jungui,Na Li,Qi Xiaopeng,Ma Yonghong,Tao Shiyin.Comparative Analysis for Different Calculation Methods of Lightning Disaster Risk Evaluation[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2018,41(2):131-135. |
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| Authors: | Ma Jungui Na Li Qi Xiaopeng Ma Yonghong Tao Shiyin |
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| Abstract: | There are 3 calculation methods for lightning disaster risk evaluation in the lightning disaster risk assessment,they are the artificial calculation,Excel calculation and software calculation.An oil depot at Shizuishan was selected as the case,the total and component lighting disaster risk were calculated using the 3 methods,based on the standard of risk management (GB/T 21714.22015).The results show that software calculation is higher than artificial calculation for the total risk,especially for the inflammable and explosive places,it is 20-30 times higher than the artificial calculation and Excel calculation,the total risk using artificial calculation method is coincident with that using Excel form.The reason causing differences is that it is very subjective for the artificial calculation,different assessing members show large differences when choosing and calculating risk components,partial risk component may be ignored,and then the total risk is reduced.For the composition of risk component,the artificial calculation is more conforming to reality for the third lightning protection building,the software calculation is more conforming to reality for the first and second lightning protection building. |
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| Keywords: | lightning disaster risk evaluation artificial calculation Excel software calculation oil depot |
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