| 一次梅雨暴雨过程的数值模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 周祖刚,张高英,姜勇强,等.一次梅雨暴雨过程的数值模拟[J].气象与环境科学,2011,34(4):1-6. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周祖刚 张高英 姜勇强 等 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 解放军理工大学气象学院,南京,211101
2. 中国人民解放军61741部队,北京,100094 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目，军内科研项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用中尺度暴雨MRM模式，采用常规报文资料作为初始场，对2003年7月8-10日的一次江淮地区暴雨过程进行数值模拟。结果表明：该模式对降水场模拟结果同实况基本相似，模式对暴雨的位置、强度、中心都有较好的模拟，嬲评分较高；西南气流对水汽的输送作用及江淮地区上空水汽通量的高值区，为暴雨的形成与维持提供了重要的水汽条件，水汽辐合区与暴雨落区相对应；中低层辐合、高层辐散的散度垂直分布形势，对暴雨的发生提供了十分有利的动力条件；强降雨出现在低层正涡度中心和负散度中心附近。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨 降水预报 数值模拟 诊断分析 |
Numerical Simulation of Meiyu Heavy Rainfall Event |
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| Abstract: | By use of the mesoscale rainstorm model, a Meiyu heavy rainfall event from 8 to 10 July 2003 is numerical simulated with the routine data. The results show that the simulated precipitation of the high resolution model is very similar with the observational rainfall. The model has a good predictive skill for the location, intensity and center of the Meiyu heavy rainfall, and TS score is higher. The water vapor transfer role of southwesterly flow and the high-value area of water vapor flux over Jianghuai region, is supplied important water vapor conditions for heavy rainfall formation and maintenance, moisture convergence zone is corresponding with the rainfall. The divergence vertical pattern, which the convergence at low level and divergence at upper level, is supplied favorable dynamic conditions for heavy rainfall devel- opment. Heavy rainfall occurred near the positive vortieity center and negative divergence center. |
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| Keywords: | heavy rainfall precipitation forecast numerical simulation diagnosis analysis |
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